Computational Experiments for Complex Social System Part II: The Evaluation of Computational Models

doi:10.1109/TCSS.2021.3121323

CORC > 自动化研究所 > 中国科学院自动化研究所 > 复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室 > 先进控制与自动化团队

	Computational Experiments for Complex Social System Part II: The Evaluation of Computational Models
	Lu, Min 1; Chen, Shizhan 1; Xue, Xiao 1; Wang, Xiao 2; Zhang, Yufang 1; Zhang, Yifang 3; Wang, Fei-Yue 2
刊名	IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS
	2021-11-04
页码	13
关键词	Capability maturity model Computational modeling Biological system modeling Epidemics Analytical models Complex systems COVID-19 Agent-based modeling computational experiments computational models COVID-19 model evaluation
ISSN号	2329-924X
DOI	10.1109/TCSS.2021.3121323
通讯作者	Xue, Xiao(jzxuexiao@tju.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Computational experiments are an important method for carrying out the quantitative analysis of complex systems and play a major role in mapping the real world to the virtual world. However, the flexibility of computational experiments leads to arbitrary modeling processes and unconvincing results, which greatly hinder the large-scale application of this method. In this context, the verification of computational models has become an urgent problem in this field. Currently, model evaluation is still in its infancy and the existing evaluation methods are not mature enough. Thus, we took epidemic models as the research object and proposed a capability maturity evaluation framework for computational models of artificial society. The framework differs from previous assessment methods that focus on the validity of results, but instead provides a comprehensive evaluation from two perspectives: 1) evaluation of the model itself--by comparing the expectation with the final implementation, we can obtain whether the model meets the expectation and 2) comparison between different models--by evaluating the implementation process of each model and comparing the results, we can identify more mature models. The implementation of the model is evaluated from input, process, and output. Further, specific analyses and evaluations are conducted for several representative COVID-19 models to verify the validity of this evaluation framework. The results of the case study show that the proposed evaluation framework can help decision-makers identify more mature and referential models, and point out the directions where modelers can improve their models.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFB1401200] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61972276] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61832014] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[62032016] ; Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems[20210101] ; Shandong Key Laboratory of Intelligent Buildings Technology[SDIBT202001]
WOS关键词	COVID-19 ; EPIDEMIC ; CHINA
WOS研究方向	Computer Science
语种	英语
出版者	IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000733500500001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems ; Shandong Key Laboratory of Intelligent Buildings Technology
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/46809]
专题	自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_先进控制与自动化团队
通讯作者	Xue, Xiao
作者单位	1.Tianjin Univ, Coll Intelligence & Comp, Tianjin 300350, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 3.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Informat Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, Min,Chen, Shizhan,Xue, Xiao,et al. Computational Experiments for Complex Social System Part II: The Evaluation of Computational Models[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS,2021:13.
APA	Lu, Min.,Chen, Shizhan.,Xue, Xiao.,Wang, Xiao.,Zhang, Yufang.,...&Wang, Fei-Yue.(2021).Computational Experiments for Complex Social System Part II: The Evaluation of Computational Models.IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS,13.
MLA	Lu, Min,et al."Computational Experiments for Complex Social System Part II: The Evaluation of Computational Models".IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS (2021):13.