Probabilistic Prediction of Solar Generation Based on Stacked Autoencoder and Lower Upper Bound Estimation Method
Pan, Cheng1,2; Tan, Jie1
2020-07
会议日期19 – 24th July, 2020
会议地点线上
英文摘要

The lower upper bound estimation method is an important probabilistic prediction method and has been applied to the solar generation forecasting. However, when the input dimension of the lower upper bound estimation method is large, its performance will be seriously affected. To overcome this challenge, a novel probabilistic prediction of solar generation based on stacked autoencoder and lower upper bound estimation method is proposed. In this method, stacked autoencoder is first used to obtain highly compressed features, which are utilized as the input of the lower upper bound estimation method. Besides, to make the target value in the center of the prediction interval as much as possible, inspired by the idea of support vector machine, the mean squared error of prediction interval is introduced to the loss function, which keeps the target value as far as possible from the lower and upper bounds of the prediction interval. To verify the performance of the proposed method, a large number of experiments have been carried out on the freely available dataset. The results show that the proposed method has better forecasting performance. 

语种英语
内容类型会议论文
源URL[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/40449]  
专题综合信息系统研究中心_工业智能技术与系统
通讯作者Pan, Cheng
作者单位1.Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Pan, Cheng,Tan, Jie. Probabilistic Prediction of Solar Generation Based on Stacked Autoencoder and Lower Upper Bound Estimation Method[C]. 见:. 线上. 19 – 24th July, 2020.
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