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	Effects of nitrogen input and climate trends on provincial rice yields in China between 1961 and 2003: quantitative evaluation using a crop model
	Sawano S.; Hasegawa, T.; Ishigooka, Y.; Kuwagata, T.; Shindo, J.; Tao, F. L.
	2015
关键词	Crop model Global environmental change N fertilizer Oryza sativa L. Provincial yield air co2 enrichment dry-matter production water-use efficiency elevated co2 northeast thailand paddy fields lowland rice growth responses temperature
英文摘要	Analyses of the technological and climatic factors that influence regional yield can provide insights into how production systems can be improved in the future. We analyzed the effects of changes in climate and nitrogen input on the time course of rice yields of nine rice-producing provinces in China for the period between 1961 and 2003. We developed a regional-scale model that considered both climate and nitrogen flow in the rice paddy. Observed yields (Y (obs)) tripled during the period, of which 65 % of the increase was accounted for by the estimated yield (Y (est)) based on changes in nitrogen input and climate. The remaining 35 % was attributed to other technological factors (alpha = Y (obs)/Y (est)), which include improvements in cultivars and pest management, for example. Contribution of alpha became pronounced after 1980 and accounted for 69 and 90 % of the yield increases in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Nitrogen input had much greater impacts on Y (est) (90 %) than did climate, but Y (est)/nitrogen input dropped substantially. Significant positive effects were observed for CO2 fertilization effects, which differed significantly among provinces; their relative contribution to the increase in Y (est) ranged from 1.0 to 7.4 %. The effect of temperature change on Y (est) was negative and significant in three provinces, but not for the overall average. To meet future rice demand and to improve nitrogen use efficiency, full use of possible positive interactions among cultivars, nitrogen management, and climate is required.
出处	Paddy and Water Environment
卷	13
期	4
页	529-543
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	1611-2490
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/38827]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sawano S.,Hasegawa, T.,Ishigooka, Y.,et al. Effects of nitrogen input and climate trends on provincial rice yields in China between 1961 and 2003: quantitative evaluation using a crop model. 2015.

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