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	Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends
	Zhang Z.; Wang P.
	2014
关键词	climate-change crop yields improvement responses stress impact maize
英文摘要	Temperature is the principal factor that determines rice growth, development and ultimately grain yield. In this study, normal growing-degree-days (NGDD) and killing growing-degree-days (KGDD) were used to capture the different effects of normal and extreme temperatures on rice yields, respectively. Based on these indexes, we assessed the contributions of temperature variations to county-level rice yields across China during the historical period (1980-2008), and estimated the potential exposure of rice to extreme temperature stress in the near future (2021-2050). The results showed that historical temperature variations had measurable impacts on rice yields with a distinct spatial pattern: for different regions, such variations had contributed much to the increased rice yields in Northeast China (Region I) (0.59 % yield year(-1)) and some portions of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (Region II) (0.34 % yield year(-1)), but seriously hindered the improvements of rice yields in the Sichuan Basin (SB) (-0.29 % yield year(-1)) and the southern cultivation areas (Region IV) (-0.17 % yield year(-1)); for the entire country, half of the contributions were positive and the other half were negative, resulting in a balance pattern with an average of 0.01 % yield year(-1). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, climate warming during 2021-2050 would substantially reduce cold stress but increase heat stress in the rice planting areas across China. For the future period, Region I, II and eastern China would be continually exposed to more severe cold stress than the other regions; Region III (including SB and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR)) would be the hot spot of heat stress.
出处	Climatic Change
卷	124
期	4
页	777-789
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	0165-0009
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/29544]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Z.,Wang P.. Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends. 2014.

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