Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm

	Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm
	Xie, Y. Q. ; Wei, F. S. ; Feng, X. S. ; Zhong, D. K.
刊名	Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences
	2006
卷号	49 期号:5 页码:629-640
关键词	solar storm interplanetary shock interplanetary scintillation two-step method ISF method geomagnetic disturbances interplanetary shock ips observations art. propagation cme
ISSN号	1006-9321
通讯作者	北京8701信箱
英文摘要	Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather "observing" and quantitative prediction - "palpating", and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of "observing", on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of "palpating", we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.
学科主题	空间物理
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	http://www.springerlink.com/content/v37n43lw5262r845/fulltext.pdf
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/1054]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间科学部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Y. Q.,Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,et al. Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm[J]. Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,2006,49(5):629-640.
APA	Xie, Y. Q.,Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,&Zhong, D. K..(2006).Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm.Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,49(5),629-640.
MLA	Xie, Y. Q.,et al."Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm".Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 49.5(2006):629-640.