An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model

	An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model
	Feng XS(冯学尚) ; Zhang,Y. ; Yang, L. P. ; Wu, S. T. ; Dryer,M.
刊名	Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
	2009
卷号	114 页码:A10103
关键词	coronal mass ejections solution element method interplanetary shock conservation element euler equations 1 au mhd disturbances propagation earth
ISSN号	0148-0227
通讯作者	北京8701信箱
英文摘要	With the purpose of operational real-time forecasting for arrival times of flare/coronal mass ejection associated shocks in the vicinity of the Earth, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic (HD) shock propagation model is established by a novel numerical scheme, the space-time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method. The required observational data inputs to this new one-dimensional CESE-HD model are the low coronal radio Type II drift speed, the duration estimation, and the background solar wind speed for a solar eruptive event. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv. 2, and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same set of events. These results may demonstrate the potential capability of our model in terms of improving real-time forecasting because the CESE method can be extended to three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (3D-MHD) from the solar photosphere to any heliospheric position.
学科主题	空间物理
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JA014385.shtml
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/973]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间科学部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feng XS,Zhang,Y.,Yang, L. P.,et al. An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2009,114:A10103.
APA	冯学尚,Zhang,Y.,Yang, L. P.,Wu, S. T.,&Dryer,M..(2009).An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,114,A10103.
MLA	冯学尚,et al."An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one-dimensional CESE-HD solar wind model".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 114(2009):A10103.