| 题名 | 泥石流灾害风险分析及其在财产保险中的应用 |
| 作者 | 丁明涛 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2009 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 韦方强 |
| 关键词 | 泥石流 易损性评价 风险评价 财产保险 深沟流域 东川城区 |
| 其他题名 | Risk Analysis of Debris Flow and Its Application to Property Insurance |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 近年来，随着社会经济的快速发展和人类活动强度的不断加大，在全球气候变化的叠加影响之下，泥石流活动日益频繁且成灾日趋严重，造成的经济损失呈增长趋势，已成为制约山区社会经济发展的重大瓶颈和防灾减灾工作的突出问题。泥石流灾害保险是泥石流防灾减灾的重要途径之一，但目前仍缺乏泥石流灾害风险分析的理论指导和技术方法支撑。因此，本文针对这一问题，从泥石流灾害风险分析的基本理论方法入手，综合分析研究泥石流灾害危险性、易损性和破坏损失性评价等关键技术方法，改进了泥石流灾害易损性评价模型和风险评价模型；建立了基于风险分析和委托.代理理论的灾害财产保险模型，提出建立适合我国城镇的基于泥石流风险度指标的区域小额保险计划，并在云南省深沟流域东川城区进行灾害保险实例分析和相关技术方法的实证研究；最后，本文探索适合我国国情和灾情特点的泥石流灾害保险运行机制和实现途径，以期能够为我国泥石流灾害保险的发展提供一种新思路。因此，本研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本研究主要取得了以下结论和研究成果： 1.从灾害学和经济学的角度，首先系统分析了泥石流灾害的成灾特点与危险性评价、易损性评价、破坏损失评价和风险评价的技术理论与方法以及灾害保险的相关概念、原理、内容和方法，从而为后续研究提供理论与技术支持。 2.建立了基于SOM神经网络模型的泥石流灾害承灾体易损性评价模型。本文将SOM神经网络方法引入到承灾体易损性评价中，在GIS技术的支持下，采用SOM模型进行泥石流灾害承灾体易损性的分析研究，解决了泥石流风险分析中易损性定量化困难和划分单元过大而掩盖区域差异等关键技术问题。 3.改进了泥石流风险综合评价模型和方法。在前人研究的基础上，本文综合考虑了泥石流危险性评价、易损性评价和破坏损失评价，借助GIS技术，实现了各种评价指标的定量描述，改进了泥石流风险综合评价模型，从而提高了泥石流灾害风险综合评价的科学性和易操作性。 4.在泥石流灾害风险分析的基础上，应用委托-代理理论，建立了泥石流风险区的灾害财产保险模型，并以云南省深沟流域的东川城区为例，针对不同暴发频率(2%和1%)的泥石流灾害进行财产保险费率的分析研究，完成了泥石流灾害财产保险理论和技术方法的实证研究。 5.本文引入基于区域指标的小额保险模式，提出建立了基于泥石流风险度指标的小额保险计划，并深入探讨了小额保险计划的可行性和风险对策。小额保险计划的基本原理是泥石流灾害保险在区域层次上根据有记录的泥石流灾害风险事件来设计，保险以标准单位合同出售，在同一风险区购买相同合同的所有投保人，其每一标准单位合同保险费率和理赔额是相同的，保险单位的数量可由投保人任意购买。 6.本文对我国泥石流灾害保险的运行机制和实现途径进行了深入探讨，提出了关于我国泥石流灾害保险机制的构想，分析了泥石流灾害保险的必要性、可行性及其发展模式，进而提出了设立我国地质灾害保险独立险种的建议。 7.针对城镇泥石流灾害的孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的社会经济状况，本研究形成了一套基于GIS技术的从数据采集→空间属性数据库建立→评价指标体系选择→空间分析→泥石流泛滥区危险度区划→城镇易损性分析→城区泥石流风险评价→泥石流灾害财产保险分析→保险运行机制和实现途径的技术路线和方法体系。这套研究方法和技术体系对于我国其它泥石流风险区，也具有参考借鉴价值。 通过本研究，有以下几个方面的创新性成果： 1.本研究建立了基于SOM神经网络模型的泥石流灾害承灾体易损性评价模型，解决了泥石流灾害承灾体易损性定量分析困难和划分单元过大而掩盖区域差异的关键技术问题。SOM神经网络模型的优点在于：它可以实现实时学习，SOM网络具有自稳定性，聚类过程无须外界给出评价函数，同时消除了人为因素对各指标权重的影响，特别适用于高维数据的无指导聚类分析。 2.本研究建立了基于风险分析和委托-代理理论的灾害财产保险模型，揭示了不同泥石流风险区和不同状态下的灾害财产保险的费率变化。该保险模型更能体现“谁受益、谁保险，多受益、多保险”的经济原则”和“公平公正、易于推行”的原则。 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent years, with the rapid socio-economic development and ever-increasing intensity of human activities, debris flows occurred more and more frequently under the global climate change. The economic losses are on the rise year by year. The side effects caused by the disasters have become the bottleneck and primary concern in terms of socio-economic development and disaster prevention and reduction respectively. Although debris-flow disaster insurance is short of theoretical guidance and technological methods, it is still an important way of disaster prevention and reduction. In view of the key role mentioned above, this paper firstly applies some fundamental theories to analyze such core technological methods to cover hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and failure loss assessment in a systematic way. Then it establishes the disaster insurance model based on the principle-agent theory and risk analysis of debris flow, and proposes the micro-insurance plan based on risk index. It will be suitable for our towns’ realities in debris flow regions. And then it is applied into practice in Dongchuan district of Shengou basin in Yunnan province. Finally, this paper has a deep discussion on the operating mechanism of disaster insurance of debris flow and its realizing way to the development of disaster insurance of debris flow in China. What this research has done is full of theoretical values and realistic significance at the ways of debris-flow disaster insurance mechanism, which fits our nation’s actual conditions and disaster features. Some conclusions and achievements are as follows: 1. The system of theory and technological method for debris-flow risk analysis is established according to our country’s actual conditions and disaster features. From the angle of both disaster science and economics, this paper gives statements of disaster characteristics, risk assessment as well as definitions, principles, contents and methods concerning insurance, and summarizes theoretical bases and research approaches of debris-flow disaster risk assessment, which provide some useful guidance for further research. 2. The vulnerability assessment model of debris flow is established based on SOM neural network model. Under the GIS support, this paper conducts the vulnerability analysis of debris flow and solves such key technological problems as the quantification of vulnerability and regional variation are covered by larger study units. 3. The comprehensive risk assessment model and method for debris flow are improved. Based on the previous research, this paper takes hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and damage assessment into all-round consideration. Besides, it realizes quantitative descriptions of various evaluation indexes by using the GIS and that has improved the scientificity and operability of comprehensive risk assessment for debris flow. 4. Property insurance model for debris-flow disaster is established under the theory of principle and agent on the basis of risk analysis for debris flow. Taking Dongchuan district of Shengou basin in Yunnan province as a case study, it conducts the debris-flow disaster insurance ratemaking in different frequency and verifies theories and technological methods of property insurance for debris-flow disaster. 5. Introducing the micro-insurance plan based on regional indexes, this paper establishes disaster property insurance plan based on the risk degree in regions of debris flows and further analyzes the obstacle of implementing the index insurance and corresponding risk countermeasure. The fundamental principle of micro-insurance plan is that the insurance is designed on the regional level according to the records of special debris flow disaster. The insurance is sold with the standard unit contract. All insurants buying the same contract in the same area, they have the same insurance premium of each standard unit contract. The quantity with unit insurance can be decided by the insurants. 6. This paper has carried on the deep discussion to the operating mechanism of disaster insurance of debris flow and its realizing way, and put forward the idea about the disaster insurance mechanism of debris flow in China. It has analyzed the necessity, feasibility and development model of the disaster insurance of debris flow, and advanced the suggestion of setting up the independent geological disaster insurance in our country. 7. Depending on the characteristics of debris flow in Dongchuan city, a set of relatively complete research technique route and method of risk assessment of debris flow were constructed which involved acquiring data, building spatial database, choosing evaluating indicators, spatial analysis, hazard zoning, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, property insurance and its operating mechanism with the GIS. Based on this research, there are two innovative research results as follows. 1. This research solved the problem of having difficulties in the quantitative assessment of debris-flow vulnerability and established vulnerability assessment model for debris flow based on SOM neural network model. Real-time study, self-stability and cluster process without any assessment function are the advantages of SOM model. Besides, SOM model can also eliminate the impact of man-induced factors on the weight of each index, which is especially appropriate for cluster analysis without any guidance of high-dimensional data. 2. This research established disaster property insurance model based on the principle-agent theory and risk analysis of debris flow, and showed us the premium rate varies from area to area during different frequency and risk zones of debris flow. That represents the rule of fairness, easy popularizing and the economic rule that insurance benefits insurant. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 学科主题 | 灾害学 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-10-13 |
| 分类号 | V1 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2162]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 丁明涛. 泥石流灾害风险分析及其在财产保险中的应用[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2009. |
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