| 题名 | 人口流迁的环境驱动力——四川省典型案例研究 |
| 作者 | 杨维琼 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2009 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 程根伟 ; 陈国阶 |
| 关键词 | 人口流迁 驱动力 绝对占有 相对占有 流迁分区 |
| 其他题名 | A study of the dynamic mechanism of human migration-floating: a case study in Sichuan Province, China |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 可持续发展是当今世的主题，是今后世界发展的必然选择。人口系统既是可持续发展的中心要素，又是核心要素。从某种程度上来说，人口系统对可持续发展起着巨大的决定作用，只要人口规模恰当，可持续发展就比较容易实现。人口流迁是一个调整人口规模快速而又有效的方式，同时又是一个可持续发展的结果。像中国这样一个发展中的人口大国，区域发展不平衡，城乡差距很大，人口流迁非常频繁，研究人口流迁的驱动力，可以丰富人口流迁理论，并有效地调控人口流迁。 本文旨在通过人口流迁驱动力的研究，探讨区域入口流迁发生的具体原因，分析不同区域人口的流迁类型。具体内容如下： (1)对人口流迁进行了定义。论文认为从本质上讲人口迁移和人口流动是相同的，都是人口对环境适应的动态分布方式，是同种人口移动形式下再进一步分出的两种亚移动形式；认为人口流迁是人类为了改善其生存、生活与发展环境，为了占有更多的复合资源而进行的特定空间移动现象，包括传统意义上的人口迁移和人口流动两个方面的内容。 (2)按照影响人口流迁的因素，将人口流迁分为环境流迁、政治流迁、经济流迁、社会流迁四种类型，并在每一种类型之下再划分出若干个亚类。按照此分类，对人类不同历史阶段的人口流迁类型和特征进行了总结，认为人口流迁是人类适应环境的一种活动方式，并且这种活动方式从被动适应逐渐发展到主动适应，得出最大化占有资源是人口流迁驱动力的结论。 (3)建立了绝对占有资源和相对占有资源的模型。利用系统动力学建立的绝对占有资源模型，从产业发展的角度出发，定量地预测人口对经济收入的占有，并通过经济收入占有应达到的水平，对未来人口流迁进行了预测；相对资源占有评价指标体系，将自然、环境、生态、经济、社会等各种资源综合考虑，对区域资源占有与全国平均资源占有进行，得出各种资源相对占有综合总值，讨论各个区域资源占有的相对情况，分析区域人口流迁情况。 (4)以四川省自贡市荣县和阿坝州汶川县为例，对资源绝对占有模型进行模拟运算。如果不发生务工流迁，到2020年，荣县的人均经济收入占有仍然达不到全面小康水平，汶川县人均经济收入占有提前一年达到全面小康水平。也就是说，如果要达到国家2020年实现全面小康，荣县需要迁出一部分人口，而汶川县可以适当迁入很少的一点人口。因为农村是人口流迁的重点和难点，论文模拟了农村人口只从事专业化的农业生产，到2020年农村所能保留的人口数，发现未来农村所能保留人口数远远低于现在的农村人口数。 (5)以荣县和汶川县为例，对资源相对占有模型进行了模拟运算。运算结果表明，综合各种资源的占有来看，荣县仍然是作为人口流迁输出区而存在，这与资源绝对占有模型的模拟结果是一致的，与现实人口流迁情况也是一致的。汶川县相对占有模拟的运算结果表明汶川县是作为人口输入区而存在的，与绝对占有模型的模拟结果和现实也是一致的，证明相对占有资源模型的设计是比较合理的。 (6)对四川省进行了人口流迁分区。首次提出了根据人口流迁类型进行流迁区域划分的概念，并将四川省划分成都平原复合流迁区、四川丘陵务工流迁区、龙门山灾害流迁区、盆周山地旅游流迁区、川西南山地工程流迁区、川西北高山高原生态流迁区等六个流迁区。认为各个区域的流迁类型不一样是因为各个区域资源占有现状和资源的需求不同。 (7)对自贡丘陵区、峨嵋山风景区、岷江上游干旱河谷区(理县、黑水县)的人口流迁进行了实证调查，调查不同区域居民对资源占有的情况，他们对资源占有的评价及人口流迁所带来的影响。调查表明，三个区域促使人口进行流迁的主要资源是不相同的，人口流迁对区域发展的影响具有两面性。 |
| 英文摘要 | Sustainable Development is not only the hot topic of our world today, but also will be the inevitably choice of world development. The population either is the sustainable development essential factor. Population plays an important role for the sustainable development to a certain extent. If population size is appropriate, sustainable development will to be achieved easily. Human migration-floating is the most effective way to adjustment population size as soon as fast，simultaneously human migration-floating is also result from the sustainable development. China is one of the developing nations, thus, the imbalance in regional development is clear and the big gap between urban and rural areas is inevitable. And human migration-floating is extremely frequent. The research for the dynamic mechanism of human migration-floating can enrich the theory about population movement and is good to development the policies/.kjhygtu8ry76et. Through the research on the dynamic mechanism of human migration-floating, the reasons why do the human migration-floating occur and the types of human migration-floating in different regions are discussed. The contents are as follows: (1) The definition for human migration-floating. In this paper, human migration-floating is considerd to a spatial movement by which human to adapt to their survival, living, or developing environment, including the traditional human migration and population floating. (2) According to factors to influence human migration-floating, human migration-floating can be divided into four types: environmental migration-floating, political migration-floating, economic migration-floating and social migration-floating. Furthermore, every type can be subdivided into some subtypes again. According to these classifies, the summary of human migration-floating type and the characteristic to the humanity different historical stage have been carried out. Then, three conlusions are drawn: firstly, human migration-floating is the one way which human adapt their environment. Secondly, there is a course from the passive adaptation gradually to the initiative adaptation. Thirdly, to possess the maximization of resources is the dynamic mechanism of human migration-floating. (3) The modes to compute the absolute possession and the relative possession to resources. By using the system dynamics, the model of the absolute possession is set up. Based on industrial development, per capita income be forecasted, then, the number of human migration-floating in the future can be computed. The model of the relative possession is an evaluation system. The resources to be evaluated including nature resouces, environmental resources, ecology resources, economic resources and society resources. Compared regional resources with national average resources, the status of regional relative resource and the number of humang migration-floating can be got. (4) After analysis the the Sichuan human migration-floating, the region division of human migration-floating has been put forward. The region division of human migration-floating is intrn. To 2020, if people don’t migrate because of wage, Rongxian’s per capita incomoduced in the first time according to human migration-floating type. Sichuan province is divided into five regions: Chengdu plain region with compound migration-floating, Sichuan knoll region with wage migration-floating, Longmen Mountain region with disaster migration, Pengzhou mountainous region with traveling migration-floating, Sichuang’s western-north montain region with project migration-floating, Sichuang’s western-southen plateau region with ecology migration. The difference of human migration-floating in region resulted from the difference of the possession resources and the most urgent resource. (5) Take Rongxian county in Zigong city and Wenchuan county in Aba administrative division as examples, in term of the model to possess the resources absolutely, simulation has been carried oe still can not achieve the comprehensive better-off level, the Wenchuan’s per capita income can achieve one year ahead of schedule. In other words, if all people must achieve comprehensive well-off to 2020, a big scale of people need to outmigrate in Rongxiang county, but a very few people can immigrate in Wenchuan county. Because human migration-floating in the rural area is the challenging work, refered to the comprehensive better-off level, the number of rural migrations is simulated out in Rongxiang county and Wenchuang county, which discovered that countryside retention population in the future is far lower than the present. (6) As Rongxian county and Wenchuan county are concerned, the simulation for the model to possess the resources relatively has been carried on. The operational result indicated that many people will move out Rongxian in the future while a few people can move into Wenchuan. The results of the modes to possess the resources absolutely and the resources relatively agree with actual situation. So the resources model is design reasonably. (7) The investigation of human migration-floating have been carried on in Zigong knoll region, Mt. Omei scenic spot and the upper reaches of Minjiang river (Lixian county, Heishui County). The investigation concludes the evaluatation of possession resources from inhabitants in different regional and the influence of huamn migration-floating on the different region. The investigation shows that the reasons for migration-floating in three regions are not same. Moreover, the human migration-floating has the positive and negative influence on the region development. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 学科主题 | 人文地理学 ; 生态学 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-09-19 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/1995]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 杨维琼. 人口流迁的环境驱动力——四川省典型案例研究[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2009. |
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