Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process

doi:10.1175/JPO-D-23-0047.1

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process
	Zhang, Hui 1,8; Wang, Qiang 6,7; Mu, Mu 1,4,5; Zhang, Kun 1; Geng, Yu 2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
	2023-12-01
卷号	53 期号:12 页码:2751-2771
关键词	Wind Forecast verification/skill Numerical weather prediction/forecasting Mesoscale models
ISSN号	0022-3670
DOI	10.1175/JPO-D-23-0047.1
通讯作者	Wang, Qiang(wangq@hhu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation for boundary condition method and Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), this study investigates the influence of wind stress uncertainty on predicting the short-term state transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). The optimal time-dependent wind stress errors that lead to maximum prediction errors are obtained for two KE stable-to-unstable and two reverse transitions, which exhibit local multieddies structures with decreasing magnitude as the end time of prediction approaches. The optimal boundary errors initially induce small oceanic errors through Ekman pumping. Subsequently, these errors grow in magnitude as oceanic internal processes take effect, which exerts significant influences on the short-term prediction of the KE state transition process. Specifically, during stable -to-unstable (unstable-to-stable) transitions, the growing error induces an overestimation (underestimation) of the meridional sea surface height gradient across the KE axis, leading to the predicted KE state being more (less) stable. Furthermore, the dynamics mechanism analysis indicates that barotropic instability is crucial for the error growth in the prediction of both the stable-to-unstable and the reverse transition processes due to the horizontal shear of flow field. But work generated by wind stress error plays a more important role in the prediction of the unstable-to-stable transitions because of the synergistic effect of strong wind stress error and strong oceanic error. Eventually, the sensitive areas have been identified based on the optimal boundary errors. Reducing wind stress errors in sensitive areas can significantly improve prediction skills, offering theoretical guidance for devising observational strategies.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[42076017] ; National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility (EarthLab) ; Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Key Scientific Research Projects Plan in Henan Higher Education Institutions[24A170031] ; Oceanographic Data Center
WOS关键词	NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION ; SEA-SURFACE WIND ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; OYASHIO EXTENSION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; ADJOINT SENSITIVITY ; INITIAL ERRORS ; GULF-STREAM ; OCEAN ; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Oceanography
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:001113301100002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184122]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Wang, Qiang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Meteorol, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 5.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 6.Hohai Univ, Coll Oceanog, Nanjing, Peoples R China 7.Hohai Univ, Key Lab Marine Hazards Forecasting, Minist Nat Resources, Nanjing, Peoples R China 8.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Hui,Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,et al. Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process[J]. JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY,2023,53(12):2751-2771.
APA	Zhang, Hui,Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,Zhang, Kun,&Geng, Yu.(2023).Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process.JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY,53(12),2751-2771.
MLA	Zhang, Hui,et al."Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process".JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY 53.12(2023):2751-2771.