The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions

doi:10.1093/nsr/nwac057

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	The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions
	Huang, Yao 5; Sun, Wenjuan ; Qin, Zhangcai 1; Zhang, Wen 5; Yu, Yongqiang 5; Li, Tingting 5; Zhang, Qing 5; Wang, Guocheng 5; Yu, Lingfei ; Wang, Yijie
刊名	NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW
	2022
卷号	9 期号:8
关键词	terrestrial carbon sequestration natural climate solutions CO2 emission energy consumption carbon neutrality
ISSN号	2095-5138
DOI	10.1093/nsr/nwac057
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Energy consumption dominates annual CO2 emissions in China. It is essential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption to reach national carbon neutrality by 2060, while the role of terrestrial carbon sequestration in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions cannot be underestimated. Natural climate solutions (NCS), including improvements in terrestrial carbon sequestration, represent readily deployable options to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, the extent to which China's terrestrial carbon sequestration in the future, especially when target-oriented managements (TOMs) are implemented, can help to mitigate energy-related CO2 emissions is far from certain. By synthesizing available findings and using several parameter-sparse empirical models that have been calibrated and/or fitted against contemporary measurements, we assessed China's terrestrial carbon sequestration over 2010-2060 and its contribution to offsetting national energy-related CO2 emissions. We show that terrestrial C sequestration in China will increase from 0.375 +/- 0.056 (mean +/- standard deviation) Pg C yr(-1) in the 2010s to 0.458 +/- 0.100 Pg C yr(-1) under RCP2.6 and 0.493 +/- 0.108 Pg C yr(-1) under the RCP4.5 scenario in the 2050s, when TOMs are implemented. The majority of carbon sequestration comes from forest, accounting for 67.8-71.4% of the total amount. China's terrestrial ecosystems can offset 12.2-15.0% and 13.4-17.8% of energy-related peak CO2 emissions in 2030 and 2060, respectively. The implementation of TOMs contributes 11.9% of the overall terrestrial carbon sequestration in the 2020s and 23.7% in the 2050s. The most likely strategy to maximize future NCS effectiveness is a full implementation of all applicable cost-effective NCS pathways in China. Our findings highlight the role of terrestrial carbon sequestration in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions and put forward future needs in the context of carbon neutrality. China's terrestrial ecosystems could sequester carbon at the rates of 0.375 Pg C yr(-1) in the 2010s and 0.458 +/- 0.493 Pg C yr(-1) in the 2050s. Target-oriented managements contribute 12-24% to the total carbon sequestration. China's terrestrial carbon sequestration in 2060 could offset 13-18% of energy-related peak CO2 emissions.
学科主题	Multidisciplinary Sciences
电子版国际标准刊号	2053-714X
出版地	OXFORD
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOREST PRODUCTIVITY ; GRAZING INTENSITY ; DESERT STEPPE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; SOIL ; NITROGEN ; ECOSYSTEMS ; IMPACTS ; STORAGE
WOS研究方向	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
语种	英语
出版者	OXFORD UNIV PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000805283500001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China [42071063]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/28856]
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou 510275, Peoples R China 3.Shenyang Agr Univ, Coll Land & Environm, Shenyang 110866, Peoples R China 4.Jilin Univ, Coll New Energy & Environm, Changchun 130021, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Yao,Sun, Wenjuan,Qin, Zhangcai,et al. The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions[J]. NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,2022,9(8).
APA	Huang, Yao.,Sun, Wenjuan.,Qin, Zhangcai.,Zhang, Wen.,Yu, Yongqiang.,...&Zhang, Ping.(2022).The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions.NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,9(8).
MLA	Huang, Yao,et al."The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions".NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW 9.8(2022).