Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty

doi:10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2023.107955

CORC > 力学研究所 > 中国科学院力学研究所 > 非线性力学国家重点实验室

	Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty
	Zou, Qingrong 3; Wen, Jici 1,2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE
	2023-12-01
卷号	177 页码:11
关键词	N curves Fatigue design Bayesian model averaging Probability distribution model form uncertainty
ISSN号	0142-1123
DOI	10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2023.107955
通讯作者	Wen, Jici(wenjici@lnm.imech.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Reliability analysis of engineering components or structures heavily relies on accurately estimating the fatigue properties of materials. However, significant uncertainty exists regarding the distribution form and value in fatigue data, posing significant challenges in constructing a robust probability fatigue model. To address this challenge, we propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to incorporate model form uncertainty into the estimation of the probability density of fatigue life. The performance of BMA was verified through numerical experiments using both simulated and experimental data. The results highlight the robustness and reliability of BMA compared to individual models, as it effectively incorporates model form uncertainty. The proposed BMA model offers a general framework for developing probabilistic fatigue models with high robustness and accuracy in their predictions. This model contributes to advancing the field of reliability analysis by addressing the challenges posed by uncertainty and enhancing the understanding of fatigue properties for engineering components and structures.
资助项目	Science Challenge Project[TZ2018002] ; R & D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission[KM202311232008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12002343] ; Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by the Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics[CSTAM2022-XSC-QN4]
WOS关键词	FATIGUE LIFE ; PREDICTION ; INFERENCE
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Materials Science
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:001097670500001
资助机构	Science Challenge Project ; R & D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by the Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/93414]
专题	力学研究所_非线性力学国家重点实验室
通讯作者	Wen, Jici
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Engn Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zou, Qingrong,Wen, Jici. Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE,2023,177:11.
APA	Zou, Qingrong,&Wen, Jici.(2023).Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE,177,11.
MLA	Zou, Qingrong,et al."Bayesian model averaging for probabilistic S-N curves with probability distribution model form uncertainty".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE 177(2023):11.