Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.07.004

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	Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming
	Zhang, Tianyi 13; Wiel, Karin van der 12; Wei, Taoyuan 11; Screen, James 10; Yue, Xu 9; Zheng, Bangyou 8; Selten, Frank 7; Bintanja, Richard 6,12; Anderson, Weston ; Blackport, Russell 10
刊名	ONE EARTH
	2022
卷号	5 期号:8 页码:907
ISSN号	2590-3330
DOI	10.1016/j.oneear.2022.07.004
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Climate change poses complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain. The impacts of climate change on average wheat yields are reasonably well studied, but its effects on yield variability and the associated economic consequences are poorly understood. Here, we show that future global wheat pri-ces will exhibit steeper spikes at 2 & DEG;C global warming (6.2% increase in the 95th percentile of global consumer price anomalies) despite a 1.7% increase in production given that CO2 fertilization benefits crops. Such eco-nomic stresses could be abated by trade liberalization with lower prices. However, on the supply side, trade liberalization has contrasting effects: the profitability of farmers in advanced economies can be maintained or even raised, but this will inevitably cause economic losses and inequalities for farmers in less-developed, wheat-importing countries. Agricultural trade liberalization accompanied by protection policies in developing countries would be beneficial for global food security in the threat of climate change.
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; SYSTEM ; YIELDS
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000863201200012
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/12084]
专题	可持续发展政策研究所
作者单位	1.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Society, Int Res Inst Climate, Palisades, NY USA 6.Univ Groningen, Energy & Sustainabil Res Inst Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands 7.Queensland Biosci Precinct, CSIRO Plant Ind, Brisbane, Qld, Australia 8.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Nanjing, Peoples R China 9.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England 10.Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Tianyi,Wiel, Karin van der,Wei, Taoyuan,et al. Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming[J]. ONE EARTH,2022,5(8):907.
APA	Zhang, Tianyi.,Wiel, Karin van der.,Wei, Taoyuan.,Screen, James.,Yue, Xu.,...&Yang, Xiaoguang.(2022).Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming.ONE EARTH,5(8),907.
MLA	Zhang, Tianyi,et al."Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming".ONE EARTH 5.8(2022):907.