Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China

doi:10.1007/s11538-020-00747-6

	Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China
	Jing, Shuang-Lin; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong
刊名	BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
	2020-06-12
卷号	82 期号:6
关键词	Influenza Meteorological factor Unreported cases Mathematical model Parameter estimation
ISSN号	0092-8240
DOI	10.1007/s11538-020-00747-6
英文摘要	Influenza usually breaks out seasonally in temperate regions, especially in winter, infection rates and mortality rates of influenza increase significantly, which means that dry air and cold temperatures accelerate the spread of influenza viruses. However, the meteorological factors that lead to seasonal influenza outbreaks and how these meteorological factors play a decisive role in influenza transmission remain unclear. During the epidemic of infectious diseases, the neglect of unreported cases leads to an underestimation of infection rates and basic reproduction number. In this paper, we propose a new non-autonomous periodic differential equation model with meteorological factors including unreported cases. First, the basic reproduction number is obtained and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free periodic solution is proved. Furthermore, the existence of periodic solutions and the uniformly persistence of the model are demonstrated. Second, the best-fit parameter values in our model are identified by the MCMC algorithm on the basis of the influenza data in Gansu province, China. We also estimate that the basic reproduction number is 1.2288 (95% CI:(1.2287, 1.2289)). Then, to determine the key parameters of the model, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are explored. Finally, our results show that influenza is more likely to spread in low temperature, low humidity and low precipitation environments. Temperature is a more important factor than relative humidity and precipitation during the influenza epidemic. In addition, our results also show that there are far more unreported cases than reported cases.
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000542611300001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/155162]
专题	学科建设与学位办公室理学院
作者单位	Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jing, Shuang-Lin,Huo, Hai-Feng,Xiang, Hong. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China[J]. BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,2020,82(6).
APA	Jing, Shuang-Lin,Huo, Hai-Feng,&Xiang, Hong.(2020).Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China.BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,82(6).
MLA	Jing, Shuang-Lin,et al."Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China".BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY 82.6(2020).