ANALYSIS OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR HIV-TB CO-INFECTION

doi:10.3934/dcdsb.2021037

	ANALYSIS OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR HIV-TB CO-INFECTION
	Guo, Zhong-Kai 2; Huo, Hai-feng 1; Xiang, Hong 1
刊名	DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS-SERIES B
	2022
卷号	27 期号:1 页码:199-228
关键词	Age structure co-infection stability MCMC algorithm uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
ISSN号	1531-3492
DOI	10.3934/dcdsb.2021037
英文摘要	According to the report of the WHO, there is a strong relationship between AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). Therefore, it is very important to study how to control TB in the context of the global AIDS epidemic. In this paper, we establish an age structured mathematical model of HIV-TB co-infection to study the transmission dynamics of this co-infection, and consider awareness in the modeling. We give the basic reproduction numbers for each of the two diseases and find four equilibria, namely, disease-free equilibrium, TB-free equilibrium, HIV-free equilibrium and endemic disease equilibrium. Then we discuss the local stability of the equilibria according to the range of values of the two basic reproduction numbers, and find the endemic equilibrium is unstable. We also discuss the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the TB-free equilibrium. Based on the new HIV-positive cases and TB cases data in China, the best-fit parameter values and initial values of the model are identified by the MCMC algorithm. Then we perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that have significant impact on the basic reproduction number R-T. Finally, combined with the established model, we give some measures that may help China achieve the goal of WHO of reducing the incidence of TB by 80% by 2030 compared to 2015.
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
语种	英语
出版者	AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS
WOS记录号	WOS:000702910700001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/155050]
专题	学科建设与学位办公室理学院
作者单位	1.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China 2.Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Zhong-Kai,Huo, Hai-feng,Xiang, Hong. ANALYSIS OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR HIV-TB CO-INFECTION[J]. DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS-SERIES B,2022,27(1):199-228.
APA	Guo, Zhong-Kai,Huo, Hai-feng,&Xiang, Hong.(2022).ANALYSIS OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR HIV-TB CO-INFECTION.DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS-SERIES B,27(1),199-228.
MLA	Guo, Zhong-Kai,et al."ANALYSIS OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR HIV-TB CO-INFECTION".DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS-SERIES B 27.1(2022):199-228.