Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse

doi:10.1007/s00285-021-01595-1

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	Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse
	Guo, Zhong-Kai 1; Xiang, Hong 2; Huo, Hai-Feng 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
	2021
卷号	82 期号:5
关键词	Tuberculosis Latent age Relapse age GWO algorithm Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
ISSN号	0303-6812
DOI	10.1007/s00285-021-01595-1
英文摘要	A new tuberculosis model consisting of ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations is established in this paper. The model includes latent age (i.e., the time elapsed since the individual became infected but not infectious) and relapse age (i.e., the time between cure and reappearance of symptoms of tuberculosis). We identify the basic reproduction number R-0 for this model, and show that the R-0 determines the global dynamics of the model. If R-0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means that tuberculosis will disappear, and if R-0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that attracts all solutions that can cause the spread of tuberculosis. Based on the tuberculosis data in China from 2007 to 2018, we use GreyWolf Optimizer algorithm to find the optimal parameter values and initial values of the model. Furthermore, we perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that have significant impact on the basic reproduction number. Finally, we give an effective measure to reach the goal of WHO of reducing the incidence of tuberculosis by 80% by 2030 compared to 2015.
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000636717900002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/148281]
专题	理学院学科建设与学位办公室
作者单位	1.Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Lanzhou 730070, Peoples R China; 2.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Zhong-Kai,Xiang, Hong,Huo, Hai-Feng. Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse[J]. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,2021,82(5).
APA	Guo, Zhong-Kai,Xiang, Hong,&Huo, Hai-Feng.(2021).Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse.JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY,82(5).
MLA	Guo, Zhong-Kai,et al."Analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with treatment and relapse".JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY 82.5(2021).