Modeling hantavirus infections in mainland China

doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.05.009

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	Modeling hantavirus infections in mainland China
	Xiao, Yanni 1; Zhang, Yunhu 1,2; Gao, Min 1
刊名	APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION
	2019-11
卷号	360 页码:28-41
关键词	Hantavirus infection Periodic system Threshold dynamics The basic reproduction number Uniform persistence
ISSN号	0096-3003
DOI	10.1016/j.amc.2019.05.009
英文摘要	Since the repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in mainland China, especially in Shannxi province, they have led to public concern and controlling the spread of hantavirus becomes challenging. To understand the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses and identify the key factors that significantly affect hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) infections, we propose a periodic dynamic model, which representing seasonal variation of mice population and related transmission. The model does include the dynamics of field mice and house mice with their contaminated environments and the dynamics of human, in which indirect transmission between human and mice via contaminated environment is involved. We analyzed the periodic system and examined the threshold dynamics. We obtained the basic reproduction number R o for the periodic system, and proved that the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if R-0 < 1 and the hantavirus infections uniformly persist in human population for R-0 > 1. By fitting data on HFRS cases in the province of Shaanxi from 2006 to 2012 to our proposed model, we were able to obtain estimates of the unknown parameter values, we further use the case data from 2013 to 2016 to verify the formulated model. We obtain the basic reproduction numbers for HFRS infection as R-0 = 1.01. The finding indicated that immune strategy, cleaning environment and limiting contact with mice are important measures to reduce HFRS infections. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11631012] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11571273]
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000470087200003
状态	已发表
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://119.78.100.223/handle/2XXMBERH/31492]
专题	理学院
通讯作者	Xiao, Yanni
作者单位	1.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Sch Sci, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiao, Yanni,Zhang, Yunhu,Gao, Min. Modeling hantavirus infections in mainland China[J]. APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION,2019,360:28-41.
APA	Xiao, Yanni,Zhang, Yunhu,&Gao, Min.(2019).Modeling hantavirus infections in mainland China.APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION,360,28-41.
MLA	Xiao, Yanni,et al."Modeling hantavirus infections in mainland China".APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION 360(2019):28-41.