The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132673

	The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai
	Shi, Yiwei 1; Feng, Donghan 1; Yu, Sumin 1; Fang, Chen 3; Li, Hengjie 2; Zhou, Yun 1
刊名	Journal of Cleaner Production
	2022-09-10
卷号	365
关键词	Diffusion Electric power transmission networks Electric vehicles Energy utilization License plates (automobile) Urban transportation Vehicle-to-grid Bass Diffusion Model Case-studies Engine vehicle Global climates Population growth Population projection Power grids Rapid growth Scrappage Technology competitions
ISSN号	0959-6526
DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132673
英文摘要	Electric vehicles (EV) are expected to see a rapid growth in next decades as a substantial measure to achieve global climate goal. This course will be an unprecedented event in the industry history, and it will inevitably influence and change the power grid and the transportation network. The projection of EV population is the basis to coordinate the development of EV and urban systems. This paper proposes a modified Bass diffusion model to fulfill this task. Firstly, advantages of Bass diffusion model are analyzed, while car scrappage and technology competition with internal combust engine vehicle (ICEV) are involved to improve the model. Secondly, performance of the proposed model is evaluated with actual data during 2006–2020, and the EV stock up to 2050 is projected with the assessment of uncertainties. Thirdly, the policy on license plate quota and the ban on ICEV sales are discussed through experiment simulation. In a standard growing mode, EV is expected to dominant the new sales market by 2030 in Shanghai, and to completely replace ICEV before 2050. This research can provide a reference for urban power-transportation integrated system planning, renewable energy consumption, and carbon reduction path design. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	Elsevier Ltd
WOS记录号	WOS:000822549600003
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/159423]
专题	电气工程与信息工程学院
作者单位	1.Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion (Ministry of Education), Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai; 200240, China; 2.School of Electrical Engineering and Information Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou; 730050, China 3.Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai, China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi, Yiwei,Feng, Donghan,Yu, Sumin,et al. The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2022,365.
APA	Shi, Yiwei,Feng, Donghan,Yu, Sumin,Fang, Chen,Li, Hengjie,&Zhou, Yun.(2022).The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai.Journal of Cleaner Production,365.
MLA	Shi, Yiwei,et al."The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai".Journal of Cleaner Production 365(2022).