Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach

doi:10.1177/00472875211061206

	Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach
	Sun, Yuying 1,2,3; Zhang, Jian 1,3,4; Li, Xin 5; Wang, Shouyang 1,2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH
	2021-12-07
页码	19
关键词	forecast combination nonparametric estimation structural changes tourism demand time-varying jackknife model averaging
ISSN号	0047-2875
DOI	10.1177/00472875211061206
英文摘要	Existing research has shown that combination can effectively improve tourism forecasting accuracy compared with single model. However, the model uncertainty and structural instability in combination for out-of-sample tourism forecasting may influence the forecasting performance. This paper proposes a novel forecast combination approach based on time-varying jackknife model averaging (TVJMA), which can more efficiently handle structural changes and nonstationary trends in tourism data. Using Hong Kong tourism demand from five major tourism source regions as an empirical study, we investigate whether our proposed nonparametric TVJMA-based approach can improve tourism forecasting accuracy further. Empirical results show that the proposed TVJMA-based approach outperforms other competitors including single model and three combination methods in most cases. Findings indicate the outstanding performance of our method is robust to various forecasting horizons and different estimation periods.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[72073126] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72091212] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71973116] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71601021] ; China NNSF[71988101]
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000729827000001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59670]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Li, Xin
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.China Secur Co Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Econ & Management, 30 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Jian,Li, Xin,et al. Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,2021:19.
APA	Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Jian,Li, Xin,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach.JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,19.
MLA	Sun, Yuying,et al."Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach".JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH (2021):19.