With the rapid development of Internet of Things technology, RFID technology has been widely used in various fields. In order to optimize the RFID system hardware deployment strategy and improve the deployment efficiency, the prediction of the RFID system identification rate has become a new challenge. In this paper, a neighborhood rough set and random forest (NRS-RF) combination model is proposed to predict the identification rate of an RFID system. Firstly, the initial influencing factors of the RFID system identification rate are reduced using neighborhood rough set theory combined with the principle of heuristic attribute reduction of neighborhood weighted dependency, thus obtaining a kernel factor subset. Secondly, a random forest prediction model is established based on the kernel factor subset, and a confusion matrix is established using out-of-bag (OOB) data to evaluate the prediction results. The test is conducted under the constructed RFID experimental environment, whose results showed that the model can predict the identification rate of the RFID system in a fast and efficient way, and the classification accuracy can reach 90.5%. It can effectively guide the hardware deployment and communication parameter protocol setting of the system and improve the system performance. Compared with BP neural network (BPNN) and other prediction models, NRS-RF has shorter prediction time and faster calculation speed. Finally, the validity of the proposed model was verified by the RFID intelligent archives management platform.