New dynamics between volume and volatility
Zheng ZY(郑泽宇)5,6,7; Gui J(桂珺)5,6,7,8,9; Qiao, Zhi2,4; Fu Y(傅洋)5,6,7; Stanley, H.Eugene1; Li, Baowen3
刊名Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
2019
卷号525页码:1343-1350
关键词Dynamics Volume Volatility Local maximum volatility Scaling
ISSN号0378-4371
产权排序1
英文摘要

Understanding, quantifying and predicting market fluctuation has become increasingly important in recent decades. Volatility and volume are the two commonly used quantities to study the market dynamics and the relationship between these two has been modeled and debated for years with several hypothesis been put forward. Using empirical data, we investigate the causality and correlation between volume and volatility and find new ways in which they interact, particularly when the levels of both are high. We find that the volume-conditional volatility distribution scales with volume as a power-law function with an exponential cutoff. We exploit the characteristics of a volume-volatility scatterplot and find a strong correlation between logarithmic volume and a quantity we define as local maximum volatility (LMV), the highest volatility observed in a given range of volume. This supports our empirical analysis, showing that volume is an effective parameter for prediction of the maximum value of volatility for both same-day and near-future time periods. The joint conditional probability of volume and volatility also indicates if we invoke both quantities, the prediction of the largest next-day volatility will be better than invoking either one alone. This approach is thus a greatly improved method of risk assessment.

资助项目NSF[PHY-1505000] ; DTRA[HDTRA1-14-1-0017] ; Program for National Natural Science Foundation[71671182]
WOS关键词TRADING VOLUME ; STOCK ; PRICES ; MEMORY ; MODEL
WOS研究方向Physics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000474503900119
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://ir.sia.cn/handle/173321/24590]  
专题沈阳自动化研究所_数字工厂研究室
通讯作者Gui J(桂珺)
作者单位1.Center for Polymer Studies, Boston University, MA 02215, United States
2.Department of Physics and Centre for Computational Science and Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117542, Singapore
3.Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
4.NUS Graduate School for Integrative Sciences and Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117456, Singapore
5.Key Laboratory of Network Control System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
6.Institutes for Robotics and Intelligent Manufacturing, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
7.Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
8.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
9.School of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zheng ZY,Gui J,Qiao, Zhi,et al. New dynamics between volume and volatility[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2019,525:1343-1350.
APA Zheng ZY,Gui J,Qiao, Zhi,Fu Y,Stanley, H.Eugene,&Li, Baowen.(2019).New dynamics between volume and volatility.Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,525,1343-1350.
MLA Zheng ZY,et al."New dynamics between volume and volatility".Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 525(2019):1343-1350.
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