A reliability assessment approach for electric power systems considering wind power uncertainty | |
Yang, Xiyun2,3; Yang, Yuwei2; Liu, YQ(刘玉琦)1; Deng, Ziqi2 | |
刊名 | IEEE Access |
2020 | |
卷号 | 8页码:12467-12478 |
关键词 | Bayesian estimation interval prediction reliability index sequential Monte Carlo method |
ISSN号 | 2169-3536 |
产权排序 | 3 |
英文摘要 | The intermittence and uncertainty of wind power pose challenges to large-scale wind power grid integration. The study of wind power uncertainty is becoming increasingly important for power system planning and operation. This paper proposes a wind power probabilistic interval prediction model, and a novel reliability assessment approach is presented for electrical power systems. First, the unknown parameters estimation of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction model is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based Bayesian estimation method to improve the quality of statistical inference. Then, a quantum genetic algorithm is used to segment the power to determine the best output for each power segment weight and calculate the probabilistic prediction interval of wind power. Finally, reliability assessment by the sequential Monte Carlo simulation is presented combining with the probabilistic prediction interval of wind power on IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system. The simulation results that proposed variation range of reliability assessment indices consider the uncertain scenario of wind power and has guiding significance for power generation scheduling. Compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm, it is proved that the proposed prediction interval model has better prediction interval coverage probability index and interval average bandwidth index. |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[51677067] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2018MS27] |
WOS关键词 | SPEED ; PREDICTION ; MODEL |
WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Engineering ; Telecommunications |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000525409100052 |
资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 51677067 ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant 2018MS27 |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.sia.cn/handle/173321/26227] |
专题 | 沈阳自动化研究所_工业控制网络与系统研究室 |
通讯作者 | Yang, Yuwei |
作者单位 | 1.Laboratory of Networked Control Systems, Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China 2.School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 3.Key Lab. of Condition Monitoring and Control for Power Plant Equipment of Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Xiyun,Yang, Yuwei,Liu, YQ,et al. A reliability assessment approach for electric power systems considering wind power uncertainty[J]. IEEE Access,2020,8:12467-12478. |
APA | Yang, Xiyun,Yang, Yuwei,Liu, YQ,&Deng, Ziqi.(2020).A reliability assessment approach for electric power systems considering wind power uncertainty.IEEE Access,8,12467-12478. |
MLA | Yang, Xiyun,et al."A reliability assessment approach for electric power systems considering wind power uncertainty".IEEE Access 8(2020):12467-12478. |
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