Estimating red noise in quasi-periodic signals with MCMC-based Bayesian

doi:10.1007/s10509-020-3744-4

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	Estimating red noise in quasi-periodic signals with MCMC-based Bayesian
	Liang, Bo 1,2,3; Meng, Yao 2,3; Feng, Song 1,2; Yang, Yunfei 2,3
刊名	ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE
	2020-02-21
卷号	365 期号:2 页码:6
关键词	Method data analysis Method statistical Sun oscillations Sun sunspots Sun flares
ISSN号	0004-640X
DOI	10.1007/s10509-020-3744-4
英文摘要	Multi-parameter Bayesian inferences based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples have been widely used to estimate red noise in solar period-periodic signals. To MCMC, proper priors and sufficient iterations are prerequisites ensuring the accuracy of red noise estimation. We used MCMC-based Bayesian inferences to estimate 100 groups of red noise synthesized randomly for evaluating its accuracy. At the same time, the Brooks-Gelman algorithm was employed to precisely diagnose the convergence of the Markov chains generated by MCMC. The root-mean-square error of parameter inferences to the synthetic data is only 1.14. Furthermore, we applied the algorithm to analyze the oscillation modes in a sunspot and a flare. A 70 s period is detected in the sunspot umbra in addition to 3- and 5-minute periods, and a 40 s period is detected in the flare. The results prove that estimating red noise with MCMC-based Bayesian has more high accuracy in the case of proper priors and convergence. We also find that the number of iterations increases dramatically to achieve convergence as the number of parameters grows. Therefore, we strongly recommend that when estimating red noise with MCMC-based Bayesian, different initial values must be selected to ensure that the entire posterior distribution is covered.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1931107] ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province[2018FA035] ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China[KLSA202007] ; NSFC[11763004]
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000518026200001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; NSFC ; NSFC ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; NSFC ; NSFC ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; NSFC ; NSFC ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China ; NSFC ; NSFC
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/54519]
专题	中国科学院国家天文台
通讯作者	Feng, Song
作者单位	1.Natl Astron Observ, CAS Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China 2.Kunming Univ Sci & Technol, Fac Informat Engn & Automat, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, Peoples R China 3.Yunnan Key Lab Comp Technol Applicat, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang, Bo,Meng, Yao,Feng, Song,et al. Estimating red noise in quasi-periodic signals with MCMC-based Bayesian[J]. ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE,2020,365(2):6.
APA	Liang, Bo,Meng, Yao,Feng, Song,&Yang, Yunfei.(2020).Estimating red noise in quasi-periodic signals with MCMC-based Bayesian.ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE,365(2),6.
MLA	Liang, Bo,et al."Estimating red noise in quasi-periodic signals with MCMC-based Bayesian".ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE 365.2(2020):6.