Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aad197

CORC > 国家天文台 > 中国科学院国家天文台

	Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle
	Jiang, Jie 1,2; Wang, Jing-Xiu 2; Jiao, Qi-Rong 1; Cao, Jin-Bin 1
刊名	ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
	2018-08-20
卷号	863 期号:2 页码:15
关键词	Sun: activity Sun: magnetic fields
ISSN号	0004-637X
DOI	10.3847/1538-4357/aad197
英文摘要	The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows predictions by assimilating the observed magnetic field on the surface. Since the emergence of sunspot groups has random properties, making it impossible to accurately predict the solar cycle and strongly limiting the scope of cycle predictions, we develop a scheme to investigate the predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle. When a cycle has been ongoing for more than three years, the sunspot group emergence can be predicted along with its uncertainty during the rest time of the cycle. The method for this prediction is to start by generating a set of random realizations that obey the statistical relations of the sunspot emergence. We then use a surface flux transport model to calculate the possible axial dipole moment evolutions. The correlation between the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum and the subsequent cycle strength and other empirical properties of solar cycles are used to predict the possible profiles of the subsequent cycle. We apply this scheme to predict the large-scale field evolution from 2018 to the end of cycle 25, whose maximum strength is expected to lie in the range from 93 to 155 with a probability of 95%.
资助项目	National Science Foundation of China[11522325] ; National Science Foundation of China[11573038] ; National Science Foundation of China[41431071] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
WOS关键词	MAGNETIC-FLUX TRANSPORT ; SUNSPOT NUMBER ; MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ; ACTIVITY FORECAST ; DYNAMO ; PREDICTION ; FIELD ; SURFACE ; LENGTH ; SHAPE
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种	英语
出版者	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000442222700021
资助机构	National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/22536]
专题	中国科学院国家天文台
通讯作者	Jiang, Jie
作者单位	1.Beihang Univ, Sch Space & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Jie,Wang, Jing-Xiu,Jiao, Qi-Rong,et al. Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2018,863(2):15.
APA	Jiang, Jie,Wang, Jing-Xiu,Jiao, Qi-Rong,&Cao, Jin-Bin.(2018).Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,863(2),15.
MLA	Jiang, Jie,et al."Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 863.2(2018):15.