Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit

doi:10.1126/science.aba8767

	Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit
	Duan, Hongbo 15; Zhou, Sheng 14; Jiang, Kejun 13; Bertram, Christoph 12; Harmsen, Mathijs 10,11; Kriegler, Elmar 9,12; van Vuuren, Detlef P.10,11; Wang, Shouyang 8,15; Fujimori, Shinichiro 5,6,7; Tavoni, Massimo 4,16
刊名	SCIENCE
	2021-04-23
卷号	372 期号:6540 页码:378-+
ISSN号	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.aba8767
英文摘要	Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5 degrees C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5 degrees C warming limit.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72022019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874096] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608603] ; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan[JPMEERF20202002]
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
WOS记录号	WOS:000645009800037
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/58734]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wang, Shouyang
作者单位	1.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, College Pk, MD 20740 USA 2.Univ Maryland, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA 3.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, E-41092 Seville, Spain 4.Fdn Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, I-20123 Milan, Italy 5.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 6.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan 7.Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto 6158540, Japan 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 9.Univ Potsdam, Fac Econ & Social Sci, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany 10.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, POB 80125, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duan, Hongbo,Zhou, Sheng,Jiang, Kejun,et al. Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit[J]. SCIENCE,2021,372(6540):378-+.
APA	Duan, Hongbo.,Zhou, Sheng.,Jiang, Kejun.,Bertram, Christoph.,Harmsen, Mathijs.,...&Edmonds, James.(2021).Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit.SCIENCE,372(6540),378-+.
MLA	Duan, Hongbo,et al."Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit".SCIENCE 372.6540(2021):378-+.