Disappointing survival forecast for a local population of Androsace albana in a random environment

doi:10.1134/S0044459619030047

CORC > 成都生物研究所 > 中国科学院成都生物研究所 > 食品安全与环境治理领域 > 农业生物技术研究

	Disappointing survival forecast for a local population of Androsace albana in a random environment
	Logofet, D. O.1; Kazantseva, E. S.2; Belova, I. N.1; Onipehenko, V. G.3
刊名	ZHURNAL OBSHCHEI BIOLOGII
	2019
卷号	80 期号:3 页码:200-213
ISSN号	0044-4596
DOI	10.1134/S0044459619030047
产权排序	3
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	A local population of Androsace albana, a short-lived perennial plant, has been monitored during 10 years on permanent plots laid down in an alpine lichen heath in 2009. We summarize the outcome of monitoring as a non-autonomous matrix model of stage-structured population dynamics. The model originates from a life cycle graph constructed earlier for the stages of ontogenesis and consists of 9 annual "projection" matrices that are calibrated in a unique way from the observation data. Five of the 9 matrices have their dominant eigenvalues greater than 1, i.e., give favorable forecasts for the local population survival, while the rest four have those values less than 1, i.e., give the negative forecasts. To make the resulting prediction, we apply an original concept of the pattern-geometric averaging of given nonnegative matrices and obtain the dominant eigenvalue, lambda(1) (G(9)), of the average matrix G(9) markedly less than 1, indicating the population decline in the long term. The traditional method to forecast the local population is to estimate lambda(S), the stochastic growth rate of the population in a random environment formed by a random choice from the same 9 annual matrices. Assuming the choice to be independent and equiprobable, we obtain the negative result as well, yet with higher quantitative values of lambda(S). We associate these higher values with the artificial assumption of equal choice probability when forming the random sequence of annual matrices, each of which is indirectly reflecting the habitat conditions that influenced the growth and development of plants during the year prior to the calibration moment. This motivates the task to construct a more adequate model for choosing annual matrices, in which the probability of choice would be related to the dynamics of the real habitat factors for a given local population.
学科主题	Biology
URL标识	查看原文
WOS关键词	MARKOVIAN VITAL RATES ; ERITRICHIUM-CAUCASICUM ; AGE STRUCTURE ; DYNAMICS ; ERGODICITY ; GROWTH ; OBJECT ; LONG ; II.
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	MEZHDUNARODNAYA KNIGA
WOS记录号	WOS:000476953100004
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://210.75.237.14/handle/351003/31026]
专题	环境治理与食品安全领域_农业生物技术研究
作者单位	1.RAS, Inst Atmospher Phys, Lab Math Ecol, Pyzhevsky Lane 3, Moscow 119017, Russia; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Chengdu Inst Biol, Renmin Nan Rd 9,Sect 4, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China; 3.Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Dept Biol, Lenin Hills 1,Bldg 12, Moscow 119234, Russia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Logofet, D. O.,Kazantseva, E. S.,Belova, I. N.,et al. Disappointing survival forecast for a local population of Androsace albana in a random environment[J]. ZHURNAL OBSHCHEI BIOLOGII,2019,80(3):200-213.
APA	Logofet, D. O.,Kazantseva, E. S.,Belova, I. N.,&Onipehenko, V. G..(2019).Disappointing survival forecast for a local population of Androsace albana in a random environment.ZHURNAL OBSHCHEI BIOLOGII,80(3),200-213.
MLA	Logofet, D. O.,et al."Disappointing survival forecast for a local population of Androsace albana in a random environment".ZHURNAL OBSHCHEI BIOLOGII 80.3(2019):200-213.