Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac0cac

	Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge
	Chen, Jiewei 2,3; Cui, Huijuan 2,3; Xu, Yangyang 1; Ge, Quansheng 2,3
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
	2021-07-01
卷号	16 期号:7 页码:12
关键词	carbon neutrality temperature rise sea-level rise Paris agreement
ISSN号	1748-9326
DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac0cac
通讯作者	Cui, Huijuan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Xu, Yangyang(yangyang.xu@tamu.edu)
英文摘要	As the largest emitter in the world, China recently pledged to reach a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, which could accelerate the progress of mitigating negative climate change effects. In this study, we used the Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator and a semi-empirical statistical model to quantify the global mean temperature and sea-level rise (SLR) response under a suite of emission pathways that are constructed to cover various carbon peak and carbon neutrality years in China. The results show that China will require a carbon emission reduction rate of no less than 6%/year and a growth rate of more than 10%/year for carbon capture capacity to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Carbon peak years and peak emissions contribute significantly to mitigating climate change in the near term, while carbon neutrality years are more influential in the long term. Mitigation due to recent China's pledge alone will contribute a 0.16 degrees C-0.21 degrees C avoided warming at 2100 and also lessen the cumulative warming above 1.5 degrees C level. When accompanied by coordinated international efforts to reach global carbon neutrality before 2070, the 2 degrees C target can be achieved. However, the 1.5 degrees C target requires additional efforts, such as global scale adoption of negative emission technology for CO2, as well as a deep cut in non-CO2 GHG emissions. Collectively, the efforts of adopting negative emission technolgy and curbing all greenhouse gas emissions will reduce global warming by 0.9 degrees C -1.2 degrees C at 2100, and also reduce SLR by 49-59 cm in 2200, compared to a baseline mitigation pathway already aiming at 2 degrees C. Our findings suggest that while China's ambitious carbon-neutral pledge contributes to Paris Agreement's targets, additional major efforts will be needed, such as reaching an earlier and lower CO2 emission peak, developing negative emission technology for CO2, and cutting other non-CO2 GHGs such as N2O, CH4, O-3, and HFCs.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23100401] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC201]
WOS关键词	ZERO EMISSIONS ; AGREEMENT ; COMMITMENT ; WELL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000669096900001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163799]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Cui, Huijuan; Xu, Yangyang
作者单位	1.Texas A&M Univ, Coll Geosci, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX 77843 USA 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Jiewei,Cui, Huijuan,Xu, Yangyang,et al. Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2021,16(7):12.
APA	Chen, Jiewei,Cui, Huijuan,Xu, Yangyang,&Ge, Quansheng.(2021).Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(7),12.
MLA	Chen, Jiewei,et al."Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.7(2021):12.