The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments

doi:10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments
	Xie, Ruihuang 3,4,5; Fang, Xianghui 1,2,6
刊名	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
	2020-05-01
卷号	63 期号:5 页码:626-633
关键词	El Nino Westerly Wind Bursts Easterly Wind Surges Operational prediction models
ISSN号	1674-7313
DOI	10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2
通讯作者	Fang, Xianghui(fangxh@fudan.edu.cn)
英文摘要	The 2014-2016 El Nino events consist of a stalled El Nino event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Nino event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Nino events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Nino in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges (EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Nino events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Nino.
WOS研究方向	Geology
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000527003100002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/167169]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Fang, Xianghui
作者单位	1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China 2.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China 3.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 6.Zhuhai Fudan Innovat Res Inst, Innovat Ctr Ocean & Atmosphere Syst, Zhuhai 518057, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Ruihuang,Fang, Xianghui. The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2020,63(5):626-633.
APA	Xie, Ruihuang,&Fang, Xianghui.(2020).The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,63(5),626-633.
MLA	Xie, Ruihuang,et al."The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 63.5(2020):626-633.