Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0 degrees C warmer climate: Assessment of population andGDPexposures to droughts in China

doi:10.1002/joc.6691

	Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0 degrees C warmer climate: Assessment of population andGDPexposures to droughts in China
	Liu, Yujie 1,2; Chen, Jie 1,2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2020-07-03
页码	12
关键词	2.0 degrees C-warmer climate China climate change drought exposure socioeconomic risk
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.6691
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Socioeconomic development and natural ecosystems of China are strongly affected by droughts. The socioeconomic risk of droughts in China should be quantified under climate change. This study assessed drought impacts on population and gross domestic product (GDP) under the 2.0 degrees C-warmer climate scenario, by implementing multiple general circulation model (GCM) simulations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP). Using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we calculated drought frequencies in the base period (1986-2005) and 2.0 degrees C-warmer climate (2040-2059 in RCP4.5). Then, population and GDP exposures were evaluated by combining the drought frequency with population and GDP simulations under a shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP). Droughts were likely to occur more frequently under the 2 degrees C-warmer climate, especially for inland areas of northern China (i.e., Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Gansu provinces), consisting mainly of mild and moderate droughts. Population exposure to drought was projected at 4.94 +/- 0.36 x 10(9)person-months, around 2% increase over the base period value. GDP exposure would increase significantly to 2.08 +/- 0.15 x 10(14)PPP $-months, approximately 14-fold over the base period. Probability analysis showed nearly 50% of the grid cells of China's entire territory undergoing more than an 11-fold increase in GDP exposure. Our findings indicated the climate and GDP effects were primary contributors, respectively, to the changed population and GDP exposures to drought. Population and GDP exposures were distributed unequally across the country, having a large impact in the east where both population and economic activity are highly agglomerated. Our results reveal an urgent need to design and implement effective adaptation measures to overcome droughts, especially in eastern China.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS[2017RC101]
WOS关键词	1.5 DEGREES-C ; AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ; RIVER-BASIN ; EXPOSURE ; EXTREME ; IMPACTS ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; PATTERNS ; TRENDS ; HEAT
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000544971700001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162416]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie. Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0 degrees C warmer climate: Assessment of population andGDPexposures to droughts in China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2020:12.
APA	Liu, Yujie,&Chen, Jie.(2020).Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0 degrees C warmer climate: Assessment of population andGDPexposures to droughts in China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,12.
MLA	Liu, Yujie,et al."Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0 degrees C warmer climate: Assessment of population andGDPexposures to droughts in China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2020):12.