Assessment of the Forecast Skill of Multiphysics and Multistochastic Methods within the GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System in the East Asian Monsoon Region

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-19-0021.1

	Assessment of the Forecast Skill of Multiphysics and Multistochastic Methods within the GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System in the East Asian Monsoon Region
	Xu, Zhizhen 1,4,5; Chen, Jing 3; Jin, Zheng 2; Li, Hongqi 3; Chen, Fajing 3
刊名	WEATHER AND FORECASTING
	2020-06-01
卷号	35 期号:3 页码:1145-1171
关键词	Operational forecasting Probability forecasts models distribution Ensembles Model errors Model evaluation performance Numerical weather prediction forecasting
ISSN号	0882-8156
DOI	10.1175/WAF-D-19-0021.1
通讯作者	Chen, Jing(chenj@cma.gov.cn)
英文摘要	To more comprehensively and accurately address model uncertainties in the East Asia monsoon region, a single-physics suite, where each ensemble member uses the same set of physics parameterizations as the control member in combination with multiple stochastic schemes, is developed to investigate if the multistochastic schemes that combine different stochastic schemes together can be an alternative to a multiphysics suite, where each ensemble member uses a different set of physics parameterizations (e.g., cumulus convection, boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and shortwave and longwave radiation). For this purpose, two experiments are performed for a summer monsoon month over China: one with a multiphysics suite and the other with a single-physics suite combined with multistochastic schemes. Three stochastic schemes are applied: the stochastically perturbed parameterizations (SPP) scheme, consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics, convection, boundary layer, and surface layer parameterization schemes; the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) scheme; and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme. The combination of the three stochastic schemes is compared with the multiphysics suite in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System with a horizontal grid spacing of 15 km. Verification results show that, overall, a single-physics suite that combines SPP, SPPT, and SKEB outperforms the multiphysics suite in precipitation verification and verification for upper-air weather variables, 10-m zonal wind, and 2-m temperature in the East Asian monsoon region. The indication is that a single-physics suite combining SPP, SPPT, and SKEB may be an appropriate alternative to a multiphysics suite. This finding lays a foundation for the development and design of future regional and global ensembles.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development (R&D) Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2018YFC1507405] ; National Key Research and Development (R&D) Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2015BAC03B01]
WOS关键词	SUMMER MONSOON ; MODEL ERROR ; CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION ; SEASONAL CLIMATE ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; BOUNDARY-LAYER ; WEATHER ; ECMWF ; PRECIPITATION ; VERIFICATION
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000541591200022
资助机构	National Key Research and Development (R&D) Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162300]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Chen, Jing
作者单位	1.China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.China Meteorol Adm, Numer Weather Predict Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Zhizhen,Chen, Jing,Jin, Zheng,et al. Assessment of the Forecast Skill of Multiphysics and Multistochastic Methods within the GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System in the East Asian Monsoon Region[J]. WEATHER AND FORECASTING,2020,35(3):1145-1171.
APA	Xu, Zhizhen,Chen, Jing,Jin, Zheng,Li, Hongqi,&Chen, Fajing.(2020).Assessment of the Forecast Skill of Multiphysics and Multistochastic Methods within the GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System in the East Asian Monsoon Region.WEATHER AND FORECASTING,35(3),1145-1171.
MLA	Xu, Zhizhen,et al."Assessment of the Forecast Skill of Multiphysics and Multistochastic Methods within the GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System in the East Asian Monsoon Region".WEATHER AND FORECASTING 35.3(2020):1145-1171.