Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios

doi:10.1007/s00703-020-00750-5

	Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios
	Ren, Yanqun 1,2,3; Liu, Suxia 1,3
刊名	METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
	2020-06-03
页码	21
ISSN号	0177-7971
DOI	10.1007/s00703-020-00750-5
通讯作者	Liu, Suxia(liusx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The influence of climate change on regional-scale precipitation is becoming undeniable, and can lead to increased flood and drought risks in some regions. The study assessed the potential effect of global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C on total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) based on General Circulation Models (GCMs). Seven total precipitation and six snowfall indices were employed in this analysis. The results show that the annual precipitation (PA) in the UYRB will increase by approximately 4.5-5% and 9-13% per 1.0 degrees C under the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming, respectively. Spatially, the PA is shown to increase across the northern part of the basin, but decrease in the southern part. Relative to the baseline period (1986-2005), the frequency of trace and moderate precipitation days shows a decreasing trend, while that of heavy and intense precipitation days will increase under both 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming scenarios. Moreover, it varies among significance levels of trace, light, moderate, heavy and intense precipitation frequency under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Unlike overall total precipitation, the annual snowfall (ASF) will decrease by approximately 2.5-8% per 1.0 degrees C under the 1.5 degrees C warming, and the 2-4% per 1.0 degrees C under the 2 degrees C warming. The ASF exhibits a decreasing trend in most of the UYRB except for the far northern part under all global warming scenarios. The date of first snowfall is modeled to be delayed and that of last snowfall will advance, which will lead to the decrease of snowfall days by about 15-20 days under different warming scenarios. In a warming world, total precipitation in the UYRB will increase and snowfall will decrease, which may increase the risk of flood in the future, and more attention should be paid.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA2004030] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0603702] ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2012CB957802]
WOS关键词	EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; CHINA ; RESPONSES ; IMPACTS ; STREAMFLOW ; PROJECTION ; PATTERNS ; CYCLE
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER WIEN
WOS记录号	WOS:000537928700001
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159446]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Suxia
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Coll Surveying & Geoinformat, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Environm & Resources, Sino Danish Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ren, Yanqun,Liu, Suxia. Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios[J]. METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS,2020:21.
APA	Ren, Yanqun,&Liu, Suxia.(2020).Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios.METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS,21.
MLA	Ren, Yanqun,et al."Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios".METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS (2020):21.