Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa

doi:10.1029/2020EF001502

	Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa
	Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel 1,2,3; Tang, Qiuhong 1,2; Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad 1; Liu, Xingcai 1; Gebremicael, T. G.3; Leng, Guoyong 1; Kebede, Asfaw 4; Xu, Ximeng 1; Yun, Xiaobo 1
刊名	EARTHS FUTURE
	2020-07-01
卷号	8 期号:7 页码:23
关键词	SPI SPEI drought East Africa uncertainty climate change
DOI	10.1029/2020EF001502
通讯作者	Tang, Qiuhong(tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011-2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041-2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071-2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the "dry gets drier and wet gets wetter" paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730645] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41790424] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41425002] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060402] ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[131A11KYSB20170113] ; Newton Advanced Fellowship ; Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President's PhD fellowship program
WOS关键词	EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS ; FOOD SECURITY ; GLOBAL ASSESSMENT ; UNCERTAINTY ; RAINFALL ; MULTIMODEL ; INDEXES ; WATER ; VARIABILITY
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000556870200005
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Newton Advanced Fellowship ; Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President's PhD fellowship program
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158158]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Tang, Qiuhong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Tigray Agr Res Inst, Mekelle, Ethiopia 4.Haramaya Univ, Inst Technol, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel,Tang, Qiuhong,Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad,et al. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2020,8(7):23.
APA	Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad.,Liu, Xingcai.,Gebremicael, T. G..,...&Yun, Xiaobo.(2020).Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa.EARTHS FUTURE,8(7),23.
MLA	Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel,et al."Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa".EARTHS FUTURE 8.7(2020):23.