Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change

doi:10.1029/2019EF001331

	Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
	Liu, Yujie 2,3; Chen, Jie 2,3; Pan, Tao 2; Liu, Yanhua 2,3; Zhang, Yuhu 4; Ge, Quansheng 2,3; Ciais, Philippe 5; Penuelas, Josep 1,6
刊名	EARTHS FUTURE
	2020-09-01
卷号	8 期号:9 页码:15
关键词	socioeconomic risk precipitation extremes climate change RCP scenarios SSP scenarios
DOI	10.1029/2019EF001331
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Pan, Tao(pantao@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046-2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2.97 x 10(9) persons) exposed to precipitation extremes >10 days/a. The RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario produces the highest global GDP exposure for 2046-2065, with a 5.56-fold increase relative to the base period, of up to (2.29 0.20) x 10(15) purchasing power parity $-days. Socioeconomic effects are the primary contributor to the exposure changes at the global and continental scales. Population and GDP effects account for 64-77% and 78-91% of the total exposure change, respectively. The inequality of exposure indicates that more attention should be given to Asia and Africa due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries, that is, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, should also commit to effective adaptation measures. Plain Language Summary The risk of precipitation extremes is likely to increase with climate change. Socioeconomic exposure is the key component for assessing the risk of such events. The projections of five global climate models (GCMs), forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), were used to quantify socioeconomic exposure to precipitation extremes for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065). The exposure of the global population for 2046-2065 is highest under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, and the global GDP exposure for 2046-2065 is highest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario. Socioeconomic effects (population and GDP effects) play the main roles in the changes in exposure at both global and continental scales. Asia and Africa should be given more attention due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries should also commit to effective adaptation measures. Key Points Global population and GDP exposures are highest for 2046-2065 in RCP8.5-SSP3 and RCP2.6-SSP1, 8.46 x 10(10) person-days and 2.29 x 10(15)PPP $-days Increases in population and GDP are the dominant contributors, accounting for over 60% of future changes in socioeconomic exposure Effective adaptation is urgently needed for some European countries, for example, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium, and in Asia and Africa
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)[2017RC101] ; European Research Council Synergy grant[ERC-SyG-2013-610028]
WOS关键词	DEGREES-C ; EXPOSURE ; POPULATION ; TEMPERATURE ; INTENSITY ; IMPACT ; DAMAGE ; CMIP5
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000576405800006
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR) ; European Research Council Synergy grant
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157047]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie; Pan, Tao; Ge, Quansheng
作者单位	1.UAB, CSIC, Global Ecol CREAF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Capital Normal Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm IPSL,LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France 6.CREAF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie,Pan, Tao,et al. Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2020,8(9):15.
APA	Liu, Yujie.,Chen, Jie.,Pan, Tao.,Liu, Yanhua.,Zhang, Yuhu.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2020).Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.EARTHS FUTURE,8(9),15.
MLA	Liu, Yujie,et al."Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change".EARTHS FUTURE 8.9(2020):15.