Spatial Distribution of China's Industrial Output Values under Global Warming Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

doi:10.3390/ijgi9120724

	Spatial Distribution of China's Industrial Output Values under Global Warming Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
	Xue, Qian 1,2; Song, Wei 1
刊名	ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION
	2020-12-01
卷号	9 期号:12 页码:19
关键词	climate change industrial output value RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 machine learning random forest algorithm China
DOI	10.3390/ijgi9120724
通讯作者	Song, Wei(songw@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Climatic changes significantly impact the socio-economic system. Compared with research on the impacts of climate change on the agricultural economic system, researches on the impacts on the industrial economic system are still scarce. This is mainly because of the difficulties in matching climate data with socio-economic data in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, which has greatly limited the exposure degree assessment and the risk assessment of industrial economic systems. In view of this, based on remote sensing inversion and multi-source data fusion, we generated kilometer-grid data of China's industrial output in 2010 and built the spatial distribution model of industrial output, based on random forest, to simulate the spatial distribution of China's industrial output under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that (1) our built spatial distribution simulation model of China's industrial output under different climate change scenarios had an accuracy of up to 93.77%; (2) from 2010 to 2050, the total growth of China's industrial output under scenario RCP8.5 is estimated to be 4.797% higher than that under scenario RCP4.5; and (3) the increasing rate of the average annual growth rate of China's industrial output slows down significantly under both scenarios from 2030 to 2050, and the average annual growth rate will decrease by 7.31 and 6.54%, respectively, under scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 compared with that from 2010 to 2020.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Plan of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071233] ; Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province[2019-ZJ-7020] ; Important Science & Technology Specific Projects of Qinghai Province[2019-SF-A4-1] ; National Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province[2019-ZJ-7020]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACT ; CMIP5 ; PATTERNS ; EXTREMES ; DENSITY ; WEATHER
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Remote Sensing
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000602111500001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Plan of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province ; Important Science & Technology Specific Projects of Qinghai Province ; National Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/137825]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Song, Wei
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Southwest Jiaotong Univ, Fac Geosci & Environm Engn, Chengdu 611756, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xue, Qian,Song, Wei. Spatial Distribution of China's Industrial Output Values under Global Warming Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5[J]. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION,2020,9(12):19.
APA	Xue, Qian,&Song, Wei.(2020).Spatial Distribution of China's Industrial Output Values under Global Warming Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION,9(12),19.
MLA	Xue, Qian,et al."Spatial Distribution of China's Industrial Output Values under Global Warming Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5".ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 9.12(2020):19.