Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262

	Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk
	Gu, Xihui 7,11; Zhang, Qiang 7,8,9; Li, Jianfeng 10; Chen, Deliang 1; Singh, Vijay P.2,3,4; Zhang, Yongqiang 5; Liu, Jianyu 6; Shen, Zexi 7,8,9; Yu, Huiqian 7,8,9
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2020-11-01
卷号	590 页码:13
关键词	Flood exposures Socio-economic development Multi-model framework Global warming
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262
通讯作者	Zhang, Qiang(zhangq68@bnu.edu.cn) ; Liu, Jianyu(liujy@cug.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Employing a mull-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/degrees C (1.9%/degrees C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/degrees C to an increase of 1.7%/degrees C.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771536] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1911205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41901041] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41621061] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51425903] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFA0606900] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0605603] ; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University[12800-312230012] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China[HKBU12303517]
WOS关键词	1.5 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER AVAILABILITY ; BIAS CORRECTION ; MODEL ; EXTREMES ; PRECIPITATION ; RUNOFF ; STATIONARITY ; SIMULATIONS
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000599754500062
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/137657]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Qiang; Liu, Jianyu
作者单位	1.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Box 460, Gothenburg, Sweden 2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX USA 3.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX USA 4.UAE Univ, Natl Water Ctr, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.China Univ Geosci, Sch Earth Sci, Lab Crit Zone Evolut, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 7.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 8.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 9.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 10.Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gu, Xihui,Zhang, Qiang,Li, Jianfeng,et al. Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2020,590:13.
APA	Gu, Xihui.,Zhang, Qiang.,Li, Jianfeng.,Chen, Deliang.,Singh, Vijay P..,...&Yu, Huiqian.(2020).Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,590,13.
MLA	Gu, Xihui,et al."Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 590(2020):13.