Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050

doi:10.3390/ijerph18030938

	Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050
	Pu, Luoman 3; Yang, Jiuchun 2; Yu, Lingxue 2; Xiong, Changsheng 3; Yan, Fengqin 4; Zhang, Yubo 1,2; Zhang, Shuwen 2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
	2021-02-01
卷号	18 期号:3 页码:21
关键词	CA-Markov model GAEZ model land-use changes simulation maize potential yields food security Northeast China
DOI	10.3390/ijerph18030938
通讯作者	Yang, Jiuchun(yangliuchun@iga.ac.cn) ; Zhang, Shuwen(zhangshuwen@neigae.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Crop potential yields in cropland are the essential reflection of the utilization of cropland resources. The changes of the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of cropland will directly affect the crop potential yields, so it is very crucial to simulate future cropland distribution and predict crop potential yields to ensure the future food security. In the present study, the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to simulate land-use changes in Northeast China during 2015-2050. Then, the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was used to predict maize potential yields in Northeast China in 2050, and the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015-2050 were explored. The results were the following. (1) The woodland and grassland decreased by 5.13 million ha and 1.74 million ha respectively in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050, which were mainly converted into unused land. Most of the dryland was converted to paddy field and built-up land. (2) In 2050, the total maize potential production and average potential yield in Northeast China were 218.09 million tonnes and 6880.59 kg/ha. Thirteen prefecture-level cities had maize potential production of more than 7 million tonnes, and 11 cities had maize potential yields of more than 8000 kg/ha. (3) During 2015-2050, the total maize potential production and average yield decreased by around 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha in Northeast China, respectively. (4) The maize potential production increased in 15 cities located in the plain areas over the 35 years. The potential yields increased in only nine cities, which were mainly located in the Sanjiang Plain and the southeastern regions. The results highlight the importance of coping with the future land-use changes actively, maintaining the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, improving the cropland quality, and ensuring food security in Northeast China.
资助项目	Criteria and Investigation of Original Geographical Features and Ecological Civilization Model[XDA23100101] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[72004049] ; MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Liberal arts and Social Sciences Foundation[20XJCZH009] ; High-level Talents Program of Hainan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China[2019RC122]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000615156300001
资助机构	Criteria and Investigation of Original Geographical Features and Ecological Civilization Model ; Natural Science Foundation of China ; MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Liberal arts and Social Sciences Foundation ; High-level Talents Program of Hainan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136083]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Jiuchun; Zhang, Shuwen
作者单位	1.Jilin Univ, Coll Earth Sci, Changchun 130021, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China 3.Hainan Univ, Sch Polit & Publ Adm, Haikou 570228, Hainan, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pu, Luoman,Yang, Jiuchun,Yu, Lingxue,et al. Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2021,18(3):21.
APA	Pu, Luoman.,Yang, Jiuchun.,Yu, Lingxue.,Xiong, Changsheng.,Yan, Fengqin.,...&Zhang, Shuwen.(2021).Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,18(3),21.
MLA	Pu, Luoman,et al."Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 18.3(2021):21.