Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes

doi:10.1007/s40333-020-0121-7

	Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes
	Qiao, Xianguo 5,6; Guo, Ke 5,6; Li, Guoqing 1,2; Zhao, Liqing 3,4; Li, Frank Yonghong 3,4; Gao, Chenguang 5
刊名	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
	2020-03-25
页码	15
关键词	climate change limiting factors maximum entropy algorithm potential distribution realizable distribution
ISSN号	1674-6767
DOI	10.1007/s40333-020-0121-7
通讯作者	Guo, Ke(guoke@ibcas.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The criteria used by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) for its Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) are the global standards for ecosystem-level risk assessment, and they have been increasingly used for biodiversity conservation. The changed distribution area of an ecosystem is one of the key criteria in such assessments. The Stipa bungeana grassland is one of the most widely distributed grasslands in the warm-temperate semi-arid regions of China. However, the total distribution area of this grassland was noted to have shrunk and become fragmented because of its conversion to cropland and grazing-induced degradation. Following the IUCN-RLE standards, here we analyzed changes in the geographical distribution of this degraded grassland, to evaluate its degradation and risk of collapse. Past (1950-1980) distribution areas were extracted from the Vegetation Map of China (1:1,000,000). Present realizable distribution areas were equated to these past areas minus any habitat area losses. We then predicted the grassland's present and future (under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) potential distribution areas using maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), based on field survey data and nine environmental layers. Our results showed that the S. bungeana grassland was mainly distributed in the Loess Plateau, Hexi Corridor, and low altitudes of the Qilian Mountains and Longshou Mountain. This ecosystem occurred mainly on loess soils, kastanozems, steppe aeolian soils and sierozems. Thermal and edaphic factors were the most important factors limiting the distribution of S. bungeana grassland across China. Since 56.1% of its past distribution area (4.9x10(4) km(2)) disappeared in the last 50 a, the present realizable distribution area only amounts to 2.2x10(4) km(2). But only 15.7% of its present potential distribution area (14.0x10(4) km(2)) is actually occupied by the S. bungeana grassland. The future potential distribution of S. bungeana grassland was predicted to shift towards northwest, and the total area of this ecosystem will shrink by 12.4% over the next 50 a under the most pessimistic climate change scenario. Accordingly, following the IUCN-RLE criteria, we deemed the S. bungeana grassland ecosystem in China to be endangered (EN). Revegetation projects and the establishment of protected areas are recommended as effective ways to avert this looming crisis. This empirical modeling study provides an example of how IUCN-RLE categories and criteria may be valuably used for ecosystem assessments in China and abroad.
资助项目	National Key Basic Research Program of China[2015FY210200] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19050402] ; Assessment Methods for Red List of Ecosystems in China Program of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China ; Characteristic Analysis of Important Ecosystems in China Program of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LOESS PLATEAU ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION ; MAXIMUM-ENTROPY ; ELEVATED CO2 ; HABITAT ; CLASSIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000521658400002
资助机构	National Key Basic Research Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Assessment Methods for Red List of Ecosystems in China Program of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China ; Characteristic Analysis of Important Ecosystems in China Program of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/133344]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Guo, Ke
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Inner Mongolia Univ, Sch Ecol & Environm, Minist Educ, Key Lab Ecol & Resource Use Mongolian Plateau, Hohhot 010021, Peoples R China 4.Inner Mongolia Univ, Sch Ecol & Environm, Inner Mongolia Key Lab Grassland Ecol, Hohhot 010021, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qiao, Xianguo,Guo, Ke,Li, Guoqing,et al. Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes[J]. JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,2020:15.
APA	Qiao, Xianguo,Guo, Ke,Li, Guoqing,Zhao, Liqing,Li, Frank Yonghong,&Gao, Chenguang.(2020).Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,15.
MLA	Qiao, Xianguo,et al."Assessing the collapse risk of Stipa bungeana grassland in China based on its distribution changes".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND (2020):15.