Simulated glacier responses to temperature and precipitation trends in a snowmelt-dominated river basin

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105492

	Simulated glacier responses to temperature and precipitation trends in a snowmelt-dominated river basin
	Liu, Shidong 2; Zhang, Jianjun 2,3; Zhang, Jie 2,4; Wang, Ke 2; Wu, Xia 2; Xu, Liping 1
刊名	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
	2019-11-01
卷号	106 页码:12
关键词	Glacier reserves Climate change Hysteretic effect Granger causality tests Tianshan Mountains
ISSN号	1470-160X
DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105492
通讯作者	Zhang, Jianjun(zhangjianjun@cugb.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Global warming is causing glaciers to recede worldwide. The simulated glacier responses to temperature and precipitation trends in the Manas River Basin in China, a typical snowmelt-dominated region, were analyzed by correlation analysis, cross correlation function (CCF) and Granger causality tests (GCT). The rates of change in temperature and precipitation are 0.413 degrees C/10a and 1.806 mm/10a, respectively. Glacier reserves decreased continuously by 75.9% from 1977 to 2016. There is a significant correlation between glacier reserves and the annual average temperature and annual precipitation. The increase in winter precipitation is not great enough to compensate for the glacier melt caused by the rising annual average temperature. A decrease in the winter precipitation or an increase in the annual average temperature causes a very significant decrease in the glacier reserves 1-2 years later. However, this decrease in glacier reserves causes significant increases in temperature in summer and autumn 1 year later as well as increases in precipitation in spring and autumn 2 years later. The trends and undulations of glacier reserves are controlled by temperature and winter precipitation, respectively. Glacier reserves are an important intermediate link in the transfer effect from winter precipitation to annual average temperature. Changes in glacier reserves show obvious periodicity, i.e., a "crest-trough-crest" process, with climate change. The cumulative effect of the climate every 15 years may create a sudden drop in the glacier reserves, which lasts for 1-2 years.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[31760151] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
WOS关键词	CHINESE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MASS-BALANCE ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; EUROPEAN ALPS ; LAND-USE ; RUNOFF ; VARIABILITY ; LANDSCAPE
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000490577900059
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129793]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Jianjun
作者单位	1.Shihezi Univ, Sch Sci, Xinjiang 832000, Peoples R China 2.China Univ Geosci, Sch Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 3.Minist Land & Resources, Key Lab Land Consolidat & Rehabil, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Shidong,Zhang, Jianjun,Zhang, Jie,et al. Simulated glacier responses to temperature and precipitation trends in a snowmelt-dominated river basin[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2019,106:12.
APA	Liu, Shidong,Zhang, Jianjun,Zhang, Jie,Wang, Ke,Wu, Xia,&Xu, Liping.(2019).Simulated glacier responses to temperature and precipitation trends in a snowmelt-dominated river basin.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,106,12.
MLA	Liu, Shidong,et al."Simulated glacier responses to temperature and precipitation trends in a snowmelt-dominated river basin".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 106(2019):12.