Disease relative risk downscaling model to localize spatial epidemiologic indicators for mapping hand, foot, and mouth disease over China

doi:10.1007/s00477-019-01728-5

	Disease relative risk downscaling model to localize spatial epidemiologic indicators for mapping hand, foot, and mouth disease over China
	Song, Chao 2,3,4; He, Yaqian 1; Bo, Yanchen 2; Wang, Jinfeng 3,5; Ren, Zhoupeng 3; Guo, Jiangang 3; Yang, Huibin 2
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2019-10-01
卷号	33 期号:10 页码:1815-1833
关键词	Disease mapping modeling Local relative risk assessment Spatial odds ratio Spatial risk ratio Spatial attributable risk Hand foot and mouth disease
ISSN号	1436-3240
DOI	10.1007/s00477-019-01728-5
通讯作者	Bo, Yanchen(boyc@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Given the limitations of current approaches for disease relative risk mapping, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive mapping method not only to simultaneously downscale various epidemiologic indicators, but also to be suitable for different disease outcomes. We proposed a three-step progressive statistical method, named disease relative risk downscaling (DRRD) model, to localize different spatial epidemiologic relative risk indicators for disease mapping, and applied it to the real world hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) occurrence data over Mainland China. First, to generate a spatially complete crude risk map for disease binary variable, we employed ordinary and spatial logistic regression models under Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to estimate county-level HFMD occurrence probabilities. Cross-validation showed that spatial logistic regression (average prediction accuracy: 80.68%) outperformed ordinary logistic regression (69.75%), indicating the effectiveness of incorporating spatial autocorrelation effect in modeling. Second, for the sake of designing a suitable spatial case-control study, we took spatial stratified heterogeneity impact expressed as Chinese seven geographical divisions into consideration. Third, for generating different types of disease relative risk maps, we proposed local-scale formulas for calculating three spatial epidemiologic indicators, i.e., spatial odds ratio, spatial risk ratio, and spatial attributable risk. The immediate achievement of this study is constructing a series of national disease relative risk maps for China's county-level HFMD interventions. The new DRRD model provides a more convenient and easily extended way for assessing local-scale relative risks in spatial and environmental epidemiology, as well as broader risk assessment sciences.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701448] ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System[201811] ; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science ; Young Scholars Development Fund of Southwest Petroleum University[201699010064] ; Technology Project of the Sichuan Bureau of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation[J2017ZC05] ; Science and Technology Strategy School Cooperation Projects of the Nanchong City Science and Technology Bureau[NC17SY4016] ; Science and Technology Strategy School Cooperation Projects of the Nanchong City Science and Technology Bureau[18SXHZ0025]
WOS关键词	METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; CLIMATE FACTORS ; CHILDHOOD HAND ; AIR-POLLUTION ; TIME-SERIES ; ODDS RATIO ; IDENTIFICATION ; STATISTICS ; GUANGDONG
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000491084300010
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System ; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science ; Young Scholars Development Fund of Southwest Petroleum University ; Technology Project of the Sichuan Bureau of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation ; Science and Technology Strategy School Cooperation Projects of the Nanchong City Science and Technology Bureau
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129573]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Bo, Yanchen
作者单位	1.Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Hanover, NH 03755 USA 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Inst Remote Sensing Sci & Engn, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, State Key Lab Oil & Gas Reservoir Geol & Exploita, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Chao,He, Yaqian,Bo, Yanchen,et al. Disease relative risk downscaling model to localize spatial epidemiologic indicators for mapping hand, foot, and mouth disease over China[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2019,33(10):1815-1833.
APA	Song, Chao.,He, Yaqian.,Bo, Yanchen.,Wang, Jinfeng.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,...&Yang, Huibin.(2019).Disease relative risk downscaling model to localize spatial epidemiologic indicators for mapping hand, foot, and mouth disease over China.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,33(10),1815-1833.
MLA	Song, Chao,et al."Disease relative risk downscaling model to localize spatial epidemiologic indicators for mapping hand, foot, and mouth disease over China".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 33.10(2019):1815-1833.