Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

doi:10.3390/w11091771

	Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau
	Jia, Kun 1,2; Ruan, Yunfeng 3; Yang, Yanzhao 1,2; Zhang, Chao 1,2
刊名	WATER
	2019-09-01
卷号	11 期号:9 页码:18
关键词	GCMs rank score multiple criteria projection Tibetan Plateau
DOI	10.3390/w11091771
通讯作者	Yang, Yanzhao(yangyz@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	In this study, the performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was assessed using data from 1961 to 2005 by an improved score-based method, which adopts multiple criteria to achieve a comprehensive evaluation. The future precipitation change was also estimated based on the Delta method by selecting the submultiple model ensemble (SMME) in the near-term (2006-2050) and far future (2051-2095) periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that most GCMs can reasonably simulate the precipitation pattern of an annual cycle; however, all GCMs overestimated the precipitation over TP, especially in spring and summer. The GCMs generally provide good simulations of the temporal characteristics of precipitation, while they did not perform as well in reproducing its spatial distributions. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method, which adopts multiple criteria, provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. The future annual precipitation was projected to increase by -6% in the near-term with respect to the period 1961-2005, whereas increases of 12.3% and 16.7% are expected in the far future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Similar spatial distributions of future precipitation changes can be seen in the near-term and far future periods under the two scenarios, and indicate that the most predominant increases occurred in the north of TP. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information on climate change, and for water resources and agricultural management in TP.
资助项目	Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program[2019QZKK1006] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20010201]
WOS关键词	MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; RIVER-BASINS ; TEMPERATURE ; CHINA ; EXTREMES ; MAXIMUM ; TRENDS ; CYCLE ; SOUTH
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000488834400034
资助机构	Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129536]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Yanzhao
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Anhui Jianzhu Univ, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Hefei 230000, Anhui, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia, Kun,Ruan, Yunfeng,Yang, Yanzhao,et al. Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. WATER,2019,11(9):18.
APA	Jia, Kun,Ruan, Yunfeng,Yang, Yanzhao,&Zhang, Chao.(2019).Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau.WATER,11(9),18.
MLA	Jia, Kun,et al."Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau".WATER 11.9(2019):18.