Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.026

	Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling
	Leng, Guoyong 2; Peng, Jian 1; Huang, Shengzhi 3
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2019-10-10
卷号	686 页码:819-827
关键词	Agricultural production Climate variability Harvest area Yield Modelling US
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.026
通讯作者	Leng, Guoyong(lenggy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Despite the fact that it is the total crop production that shapes future food supply rather than one of its single component, previous studies have mainly focused on the changes in crop yield. It is possible that recent gains in crop production arc mainly due to improvement of yield rather than growth of harvest area. However, it remains unclear about the geographical patterns of their relative contributions at fine scales and the possible mechanisms. Analysis of US maize production shows that maize production has increased significantly at a rate of 2.1%/year during 1980-2010. Although yield is the dominant factor contributing to production growth for the country as a whole, the importance of harvest area has become more evident with time. In 56% of US's maize growing counties, harvest area has also contributed more than yield to production changes. High spatial correlation between the change rates of harvest area and production is observed (R = 0.96), while a weak relation (R = 0.21) is found between the spatial patterns of yield and production. This suggests that harvest area has exerted the dominant role in modulating the spatial distribution pattern of maize production changes. Further analysis suggests that yield and harvest area respond differently to climate variability, which has great implications for adaptation strategies. Comparing 11 state-of-the-art crop model simulations against census data reveals large bias in the simulated spatial patterns of maize production. Nevertheless, such bias can be reduced substantially by incorporating the observed dynamics of harvest area, pointing to a potential pathway for future model improvement. This study highlights the importance of accounting for harvest area dynamics in assessing agricultural production empirically or with crop models. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	Young Talents Supporting Programme of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[YJRCPT2019-001]
WOS关键词	FOOD SECURITY ; YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACT ; US ; INTENSIFICATION ; VARIABILITY ; PROTOCOLS ; WEATHER ; DEMAND
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000479029700072
资助机构	Young Talents Supporting Programme of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68774]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Leng, Guoyong
作者单位	1.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Base Ecohydraul Engn Arid Area, Xian 710048, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leng, Guoyong,Peng, Jian,Huang, Shengzhi. Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,686:819-827.
APA	Leng, Guoyong,Peng, Jian,&Huang, Shengzhi.(2019).Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,686,819-827.
MLA	Leng, Guoyong,et al."Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 686(2019):819-827.