Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China

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	Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China
	Xia Jun
	2009
关键词	Bayesian networks Climate change Land use Model structures Population statistics Reservoirs (water) Rivers Runoff Soil conservation Time series Uncertainty analysis Water resources Watersheds
英文摘要	The Chaobai River basin in northern China consists of two major tributaries, the Chao River and Bai River. Monthly observations of precipitation, streamfiow, and panevaporation data are available for 35 years (1961-1966 and 1973-2001). Using the annual time series of the observed streamfiow, one break point at 1979 is detected and is adopted to divide the data set into two study periods, the "before" and "after" periods marking the onset of significant anthropogenic alteration of the flow (reservoirs and silt retention dams, five times increase in population) and significant changes in land use (conversion to terraced fields versus sloping fields). The distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) was used to evaluate the water resources of the area. Furthermore, the Bayesian method used by Engeland et al. (2005) was used in this paper to evaluate two uncertainty sources (i.e., the model parameter and model structure) and for assessing the DTVGM's performance over the Chaobai River basin. Comparing the annual precipitation means over 13 years (1961-1966 and 1973-1979), the means of the second period (1980-2001) decreased by 5.4% and 4.9% in the Chao River and Bai River basins, respectively. However, the related annual runoff decreased by 40.3% and 52.8%, respectively, a much greater decline than exhibited by precipitation. Through the monthly model simulation and the fixing-changing method, it is determined that decreases in runoff between the two periods can be attributed to 35% (31%) from climate variations and 68% (70%) from human activities in the Chao River (Bai River). Thus, human impact exerts a dominant influence upon runoff decline in the Chaobai River basin compared to climate. This study enhances our understanding of the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on runoff. © 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
出处	Water Resources Research
卷	45 期:7
收录类别	EI
语种	英语
内容类型	EI期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/24564]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xia Jun. Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China. 2009.