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	Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate
	Wang J. F. ; Guo Y. S. ; Christakos G. ; Yang W. Z. ; Liao Y. L. ; Li Z. J. ; Li X. Z. ; Lai S. J. ; Chen H. Y.
	2011
关键词	bayesian-maximum-entropy spatial prediction surveillance data health risk maps uncertainty epidemic clusters system
英文摘要	Background: The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000 similar to 1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. Methods and Findings: HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 x 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types. Conclusions: HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.
出处	International Journal of Health Geographics
卷	10
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	1476-072X
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/22929]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J. F.,Guo Y. S.,Christakos G.,et al. Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate. 2011.

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