How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.03.003

CORC > 上海财经大学 > 上海财经大学

	How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories
	Zhang, Xi 1; Zhao, Xingrong 1; Jiang, Zhujun 2; Shao, Shuai 2
刊名	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
	2017-05
卷号	44 页码:83-97
关键词	Emission-reduction target Industrial sector R&D Scenario analysis Monte Carlo simulation
ISSN号	0959-3780
DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.03.003
英文摘要	The Chinese government actively follows the low-carbon development pattern and has set the definite targets of reducing carbon emissions by 2030. The industrial sector plays a significant role in China's economic growth and CO2 emissions. This is the first study to present a specific investigation on the retrospective decomposition (1993-2014) and prospective trajectories (2015-2035) of China's industrial CO2 emission intensity (ICEI) and industrial CO2 emissions (ICE), aiming at China Industrial Green Development Plan 2016-2020 targets and China's 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets. We introduce process carbon intensity, investment and R&D factors into the decomposition model and make a combination of dynamic Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis to identify whether and how the targets would be realized from a sector-specific perspective. The results indicate that investment intensity is the primary driver for the increase in ICEI, while R&D intensity and energy intensity are the leading contributors to the reduction in ICEI. Under existing policies, it is very possible for the industrial sector to achieve the 2020 and 2030 intensity-reduction targets. However, the realization of 2030 emission-peak target has some uncertainties and needs extra efforts in efficiency improvement and structural adjustment. All the five scenarios would achieve the 2020 and 2030 intensity-reduction targets, except Scenario N4 for China Industrial Green Development Plan 2016-2020 target. Nonetheless, only three scenarios would realize the 2030 emission-peak target. With strong efficiency improvement and structural adjustment, ICE would hit the peak in 2025. In contrast, with high/low efficiency improvement and weak structural adjustment, ICE would fail to reach the peak before 2035. Both ICEI and ICE have substantial mitigation potentials with the enhancement of efficiency improvement and structural adjustment. Finally, we suggest that the Chinese government should raise the baseline requirements of efficiency improvement and structural adjustment for the industrial sector to achieve China's 2030 targets. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000405250800008
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://10.2.47.112/handle/2XS4QKH4/983]
专题	上海财经大学
通讯作者	Shao, Shuai
作者单位	1.China Univ Petr, Sch Chem Engn, Qingdao 266580, Peoples R China; 2.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Inst Finance & Econ Res, Sch Urban & Reg Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xi,Zhao, Xingrong,Jiang, Zhujun,et al. How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,44:83-97.
APA	Zhang, Xi,Zhao, Xingrong,Jiang, Zhujun,&Shao, Shuai.(2017).How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,44,83-97.
MLA	Zhang, Xi,et al."How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 44(2017):83-97.