Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models   constrained by observation

doi:10.1002/2017GL073454

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation
	Yang, Hui ; Zhou, Feng ; Piao, Shilong ; Huang, Mengtian ; Chen, Anping ; Ciais, Philippe ; Li, Yue ; Lian, Xu ; Peng, Shushi ; Zeng, Zhenzhong
刊名	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
	2017
关键词	runoff change future projection Earth system model multimodel ensemble Bayesian model averaging GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES CLIMATE-CHANGE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY DISCHARGE TRENDS CMIP5 SIMULATIONS UNCERTAINTY
DOI	10.1002/2017GL073454
英文摘要	In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.81.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.21.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41561134016, 41530528, 41671464]; 111 project; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China; SCI(E); ARTICLE; 11; 5540-5549; 44
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/472763]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Hui,Zhou, Feng,Piao, Shilong,et al. Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017.
APA	Yang, Hui.,Zhou, Feng.,Piao, Shilong.,Huang, Mengtian.,Chen, Anping.,...&Zeng, Zhenzhong.(2017).Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS.
MLA	Yang, Hui,et al."Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017).