Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution:   A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

doi:10.1002/2014JG002627

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication
	Zeng, Zhenzhong ; Chen, Anping ; Piao, Shilong ; Rabin, Sam ; Shen, Zehao
刊名	journal of geophysical research biogeosciences
	2014
关键词	GLOBAL VEGETATION MODELS CLIMATE-CHANGE REGRESSION TREES FIRE AFRICA DEFORESTATION PRODUCTIVITY PREDICTION FEEDBACKS AMAZON
DOI	10.1002/2014JG002627
英文摘要	The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend-the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas-could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors-mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors-for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15 degrees N and 35 degrees S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.; http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000340543000012&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701 ; Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; SCI(E); 3; ARTICLE; anpingc@princeton.edu; slpiao@pku.edu.cn; 7; 1432-1445; 119
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/161161]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeng, Zhenzhong,Chen, Anping,Piao, Shilong,et al. Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication[J]. journal of geophysical research biogeosciences,2014.
APA	Zeng, Zhenzhong,Chen, Anping,Piao, Shilong,Rabin, Sam,&Shen, Zehao.(2014).Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication.journal of geophysical research biogeosciences.
MLA	Zeng, Zhenzhong,et al."Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication".journal of geophysical research biogeosciences (2014).