Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-03512-3

	Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China
	Liao, Yilan 1,2; Lei, Yanhui 1,3; Ren, Zhoupeng 1,2; Chen, Huiyan 1,4; Li, Dongyue 1,2
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2017-06-20
卷号	7 页码:10
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-017-03512-3
通讯作者	Liao, Yilan(liaoyl@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Since the disclosure of the "Illegal vaccine operation series case in Jinan, Shandong" in March, 2016, this issue has attracted a great deal of attention and has led to public concerns about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines involved in this case. The main purpose of this paper is to scientifically and scrupulously predict the possible geographic distribution of illegal vaccines in China, and provide a foundation to guide future governmental policies and actions. A species distribution model was used because of the advantages of using presence/pseudo-absence or presence-only data, and it performs well with incomplete species distribution data. A series of socioeconomic variables were used to simulate habitat suitability distribution. Maxent (Maximum Entropy Model) and GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Production) were used to predict the risks of illegal vaccines in China, and define the spatial distribution and significant factors of the area at risk from illegal vaccines. Jackknife tests were used to evaluate the relative importance of socioeconomic variables. It was found that: (1) Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui are the main high-risk areas impacted by the vaccines involved in Jinan case. (2) Population density and industrial structure are the main socioeconomic factors affecting areas which may be at risk from illegal vaccines.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41101431] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471377] ; Yong Talent Fund of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS[2012RC201] ; LREIS[088RA200YA]
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODELS ; MAXENT
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号	WOS:000403643900036
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Yong Talent Fund of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS ; LREIS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/63092]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liao, Yilan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Key Lab Surveillance & Early Warning Infect Dis, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 3.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Geomat Coll, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China 4.Changan Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Resources, Xian 710054, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liao, Yilan,Lei, Yanhui,Ren, Zhoupeng,et al. Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:10.
APA	Liao, Yilan,Lei, Yanhui,Ren, Zhoupeng,Chen, Huiyan,&Li, Dongyue.(2017).Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,10.
MLA	Liao, Yilan,et al."Predicting the potential risk area of illegal vaccine trade in China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):10.