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	How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?
	Zhang, Aijing1; Liu, Wenbin2; Yin, Zhenliang; Fu, Guobin4; Zheng, Chunmiao1,5,6
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
	2016-05-01
卷号	17期号:5页码:1517-1542
ISSN号	1525-755X
DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-15-0058.1
通讯作者	Zheng, Chunmiao(zhengcm@sustc.edu.cn)
英文摘要	This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021-50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981-2010), by 1.2 degrees-1.7 degrees C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4 degrees-2.1 degrees C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%-16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%-22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHEDS ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; UPPER REACHES ; FLOW REGIMES ; ARID REGION ; MODEL ; RUNOFF ; HYDROLOGY ; RAINFALL
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号	WOS:000376398300004
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2557349
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Zheng, Chunmiao
作者单位	1.Peking Univ, Inst Water Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou, Peoples R China 4.CSIRO Land & Water, Wembley, WA, Australia 5.South Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China 6.Univ Alabama, Dept Geol Sci, Tuscaloosa, AL USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Aijing,Liu, Wenbin,Yin, Zhenliang,et al. How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2016,17(5):1517-1542.
APA	Zhang, Aijing,Liu, Wenbin,Yin, Zhenliang,Fu, Guobin,&Zheng, Chunmiao.(2016).How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,17(5),1517-1542.
MLA	Zhang, Aijing,et al."How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 17.5(2016):1517-1542.

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