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	Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history
	Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane
刊名	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
	2007-12-04
卷号	104期号:49页码:19214-19219
关键词	agricultural production population collapse price war-peace cycles preindustrial era
ISSN号	0027-8424
DOI	10.1073/pnas.0703073104
通讯作者	Zhang, David D.(zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk)
英文摘要	Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.
收录类别	SCI ; SSCI
WOS关键词	LAST MILLENNIUM ; FREQUENCY ; CHINA
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	NATL ACAD SCIENCES
WOS记录号	WOS:000251525800012
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2555897
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, David D.
作者单位	1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Georgia Inst Technol, Sam Nunn Sch Int Affairs, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China 4.UCL, Dept Anthropol, London WC1E 6BT, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, David D.,Brecke, Peter,Lee, Harry F.,et al. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2007,104(49):19214-19219.
APA	Zhang, David D.,Brecke, Peter,Lee, Harry F.,He, Yuan-Qing,&Zhang, Jane.(2007).Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,104(49),19214-19219.
MLA	Zhang, David D.,et al."Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104.49(2007):19214-19219.

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