QQ客服 官方微博 反馈留言

	Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
	Huang, Jinlong1; Qin, Dahe2; Jiang, Tong1; Wang, Yanjun1; Feng, Zhiqiang3; Zhai, Jianqing1,4; Cao, Lige1; Chao, Qingchen4; Xu, Xinwu5; Wang, Guofu4
刊名	EARTHS FUTURE
	2019-03-01
卷号	7期号:3页码:250-265
关键词	fertility policies population structure economy shared socioeconomic pathways China
ISSN号	2328-4277
DOI	10.1029/2018EF000964
通讯作者	Jiang, Tong(jiangtong@cma.gov.cn) ; Su, Buda(subd@cma.gov.cn)
英文摘要	Beginning in 2016, all couples in China were allowed to have two children without any restrictions. This paper provides population and economic projections under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and three fertility policies. By replacing the one-child policy with the two-child policy, the population is predicted to continue growing until 2025-2035, with a peak of approximately 1.39-1.42 billion, and then to decline under four SSPs, with the exception of the fragmented world SSP3. As a result, the two-child policy will lead to mitigation of the pressure from labor shortages and aging problems to a certain extent. In addition, an increase in working-age people with higher education level relative to projections based on the one-child policy will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by approximately 38.1-43.9% in the late 21st century. However, labor shortages and aging problems are inevitable, and the proportion of elderly in China will be greater than 14% and 21% by approximately 2025 and 2035, respectively. Full liberalization of fertility is expected to reduce the share of elderly people by 0.7-1.0% and to lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 5.3-6.7% relative to the two-child policy in the late 21st century. The full liberalization of fertility policies is recommended, supplemented by increases in pension and child-rearing funds, improvement in the quality of health services for females and children, and extension of compulsory education to meet the needs of an aged society.
收录类别	SCI ; SSCI
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK ; WATER SCARCITY ; EDUCATION ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; HISTORY ; CMIP5
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000463987100004
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2555505
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Jiang, Tong; Su, Buda
作者单位	1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Inst Disaster Risk Management iDRM, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China 3.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Jinlong,Qin, Dahe,Jiang, Tong,et al. Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019,7(3):250-265.
APA	Huang, Jinlong.,Qin, Dahe.,Jiang, Tong.,Wang, Yanjun.,Feng, Zhiqiang.,...&Su, Buda.(2019).Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.EARTHS FUTURE,7(3),250-265.
MLA	Huang, Jinlong,et al."Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways".EARTHS FUTURE 7.3(2019):250-265.

个性服务

查看访问统计

相关权益政策

暂无数据

收藏/分享

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。