Assessing the effect of cell-level uncertainty on a forest landscape model simulation in northeastern China

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	Assessing the effect of cell-level uncertainty on a forest landscape model simulation in northeastern China
	Xu, CG; He, HS; Hu, YM; Chang, Y; Larsen, DR; Li, XZ; Bu, RC; Xu, CG, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, Shenyang 110016, Peoples R China
刊名	ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
	2004
卷号	180 期号:1 页码:57-72
关键词	Forest Landscape Model Landis Uncertainty Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation Northeastern China
ISSN号	0304-3800
英文摘要	LANDIS is a cell-based spatially explicit forest landscape model designed to explore successional dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Species age cohort (10-year cohort of a given tree species) information is required for each cell in LANDIS. However, providing such information for a landscape comprising millions of cells is challenging. In this study, a stand-based assignation (SBA) approach was developed to stochastically assign species age cohorts to each cell based on forest inventory data. As a probability-based approach, SBA will introduce errors in LANDIS input. In order to assess the effect of errors produced by SBA on LANDIS results, 20 Monte Carlo simulations were produced. For each species simulated in LANDIS, the recurrence frequency (RF) of the majority species age cohort (MSAC, the most frequently Occurring species age cohort) from 20 Monte Carlo simulations were used to quantify the uncertainty in species age cohorts for individual cell. Average recurrence frequency (ARF) of the MSAC was used to quantify the overall uncertainty in species age cohorts at the cell level. For each species, the coefficient of variation (CV) for the percent area and an aggregation index for the 20 Monte Carlo simulations was used to quantify the uncertainty at the landscape level. Results showed that at the cell level, uncertainty was relatively low at the beginning of the simulation (ARF was larger than 10). Seed dispersal, seedling establishment, mortality, and fire disturbance caused uncertainty to increase with simulation year. The uncertainty finally reached an equilibrium state, where input errors in original species age cohorts had little effect on the simulation outcomes. At the landscape level, species percent area and their spatial patterns were not substantially affected by the uncertainties in species age structure at the cell level. Since the typical use of LANDIS is to predict the long-term landscape pattern change, SBA can be used to parameterize species age cohorts for individual cells. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Ecology
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000224379500005
公开日期	2011-09-23
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://210.72.129.5/handle/321005/55241]
专题	沈阳应用生态研究所_沈阳应用生态研究所
通讯作者	Xu, CG, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, Shenyang 110016, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, CG,He, HS,Hu, YM,et al. Assessing the effect of cell-level uncertainty on a forest landscape model simulation in northeastern China[J]. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,2004,180(1):57-72.
APA	Xu, CG.,He, HS.,Hu, YM.,Chang, Y.,Larsen, DR.,...&Xu, CG, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, Shenyang 110016, Peoples R China.(2004).Assessing the effect of cell-level uncertainty on a forest landscape model simulation in northeastern China.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,180(1),57-72.
MLA	Xu, CG,et al."Assessing the effect of cell-level uncertainty on a forest landscape model simulation in northeastern China".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 180.1(2004):57-72.